Global Guerrillas: JOURNAL: The strong that fight the weak become weak
Ethiopia should have abandoned Somalia (as planned) as soon as the ICU was out of power. Their efforts to achieve "stability" with the aid of the wet blanket that is Somalia's "officially" recognized government only make them appear weaker.
Firstly, it points to the instability we helped generate when we ran the Islamic Courts Union out of power in the hopes of nabbing a few individuals associated with Al Qaeda. Secondly, it points to the power of the web. How? Check out this little snippet:
Yep. Middle of Somalia. Ragtag militia fighting in one of the most chaotic cities in the world...but they get information out over the web quickly - and I'd bet with a better spin than that managed by the Somali "government."An insurgent group known as the Popular Resistance Movement in the Land of the Two Migrations, which is linked to the ousted Council of Islamic Courts, claimed it was the target of the government offensive but said its fighters repulsed the attack.
"They were unable to bear the pain of bullets coming from all four directions," the group said in a statement posted on the Islamic militia's Web site.
A government official, who agreed to discuss the combat situation only if not quoted by name, said the offensive focused on parts of the city controlled by the Habr Gedir clan, which supported more radical elements of the Islamic militia and opposes the interim administration.
The US aids Ethiopia in ousting the ICU in order to chase after a handful of individuals...achieving a minor tactical success in the process.
Islamic insurgents go into hiding while Somalia descends into chaos.
As Ethiopia begins to withdraw, the weak Somali government propped up by the Ethiopians loses control and violence spirals upward in Mogadishu.
Likely end state?
So who has the greater strategic vision here?
While I'm not ready just yet to jump on the bandwagon being built here and here (a 'riot' consisting of hundreds within a city as large as Mogadishu does not necessarily tell us the true majority view within the city), I am fairly certain that Somalia - and those seeking to prevent Somalia from becoming another breeding ground for terror (similar to Afghanistan of old) - was better off under the stabilizing hands of the Islamic Courts Union.
Will the Ethiopians benefit from intervention? If they play it right, they may. But playing it right, from the Ethiopian perspective probably looks like withdrawal sooner rather than later - regardless of Somalia's stability. Far better (and cheaper) for them to regroup, refit, and wait to cross the border again to throw out the Islamists if (when?) they return to power and begin pushing policies damaging to Ethiopian interests. In fact, by withdrawing quickly and making it clear to the Islamist leadership that they'll be back if Somali talk returns to intervention or meddling in Ethiopia, Ethiopia may gain the most.
For the Islamists, any sort of staged attacks that occur near the Ethiopian withdrawal will strengthen their hand...as will continued chaos in Mogadishu under the current "government." It won't take long for ordinary Somalians to look back favorably on the stability provided by the ICU.
So what does "right" look like at this point? Good question. This editorial from the WaPost offers some ideas but requires the commitment of competent African forces (that won't be viewed as occupiers) and US willingness to act as (or find an) honest broker for negotiations between the UN-supported "government" and the ICU. I'd call it a long shot but probably the best for Somalia, the region, and US efforts to prevent a more aggressively jihadi-style government rising within Somalia.
Gayle Smith, a long-time observer of Somalia now with the Center for American Progress, cautioned against a US approach that focuses more on combating terrorism than dealing with the underlying frailty of Somalia which allowed the radicalism to take root in the first place.
"The crisis we're seeing is an outgrowth of a war on terror that we've defined pretty much as a global game of 'gotcha' -- of trying to capture a lot of terrorists, which is important, but without also doing the much harder long term work of dealing with weak and failing states," she said.
