Saturday, December 29, 2007

Crisis Overseas Is Sudden Test for Candidates - New York Times

I think this is, as the article describes, a key test for the candidates - and (possibly) a coup for the likes of Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

The key question will probably be this: how much does the general American electorate (or, more specifically, that portion of the electorate that tends to show up during the primary season) really understand the importance of events in Pakistan? The fact that folks like Richardson and Biden have gained absolutely zero traction in the race so far would seem to indicate a distinct lack of desire among the electorate to immerse themselves in the details of foreign policy. The polling strength of Obama, Guiliani, Romney, and Huckabee is, I think, built upon a general belief that international affairs - outside of one's position on Iraq - really aren't all that important.

The Clinton campaign's efforts to emphasize her "proven" ability to govern based on experience and an understanding of international issues (as questionable as I believe that experience to actually be...) looks a lot more appealing in a time of international crisis. That being said, she doesn't really say a whole lot about what she would DO other than push for an international investigation of the incident (not a bad idea...but unlikely to do much more than spur more angst in Pakistan...much as the international investigation did little to settle the political tension in Lebanon).

Of course, she frowns upon the Administration's handling of Pakistan (without offering specific examples of her approach) and trots out some brief factoids on Pakistan history. It makes her appear well-informed but, as usual, avoids specifics. Then again, I'd argue her short description of Pakistan's political history completely ignores the instability Pakistan suffered under previous democratic governments - to include Bhutto's. I would argue that Pakistan likely needs the steady hand of a strong ruler (with the firm backing of the military) similar to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in Turkey if they hope to reach the level of stability necessary to create a self-sustaining democracy. I would also argue that Musharraf SEEMED to be a possible candidate for such a role up until the events of the last year or two. Viewed from that perspective, American conditional support for his rule made more sense than pushing too hard for premature elections - or providing him unconditional support. The dynamics have changed, the situation is much more difficult, and Hillary Clinton is not reflecting that complexity in her current posturing.

On the other side of the Democratic candidates, we have Joe Biden...much more well-informed, much more specific, but also caught up in a number of inconsistencies. I just finished listening to his take on Pakistan (voiced prior to the death of Bhutto) and...I was disappointed. He is:

  1. Too dismissive of Iran
  2. Contradictory regarding how the US should take action against states that either explicitly or implicitly support terrorism (incursions into Pakistan but ignore Iran? How does that make sense?)
  3. Overly optimistic regarding what an increased US presence in Afghanistan could affect (NATO ain't coming if we add more troops. They're leaving)
  4. Flat wrong on the current distribution of Special Operations Forces (which are already crawling all over Afghanistan)
  5. And airily dismissive of the difficulties involved in operating in the Northwest Territories.

If we REALLY want to give Islamists and extremists within Pakistan a rallying cry that will echo across a broad swath of the population, let's attempt unilateral actions in Pakistan. Hear that Obama?

Between Obama and Huckabee, we have the two most detached perspectives. From Obama, we get empty "I understand better than all those guys in there now" rhetoric, a reminder that he'd feel free to attack Pakistan (but not Iran...?) to root out terrorists, and more talk of Musharraf's "anti-democratic" actions. If you're gonna say that, you need to follow up with the beginning of a solution, buddy. Who would we support instead? How? Considering much of the opposition uses Musharraf's ties to Washington as a rallying point, how would they accept US support? All things considered, Bhutto was about the only powerful opposition leader the US could leverage to change the political scene for the better...and we did that. A fact that seems to get shoved conveniently under the table as the debate over Pakistan continues.

From Huckabee? Concern that Pakistanis might cross the US border if we don't hurry up with immigration reform (huh?). An argument could be made that both positions are politically savvy in terms of the campaign. Obama distances himself from a situation that has few right answers (without providing anything of his own) while Huckabee ties it directly back to immigration reform - a key issue for Republicans in this election season. My growing concern with Huckabee is that his strength is built upon his ability to appeal to the least informed among the Republican electorate.

I like McCain's measured words on Pakistan. He understands this is not a time for American grandstanding - and not necessarily a time for overly politicizing a dangerous situation. No, we can't expect to (and shouldn't want to) stick with the status quo...but a long term solution to Pakistan's ongoing crisis won't come from sound bites or harsh denunciations for Musharraf.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Saturday, December 22, 2007

So here's my question...

...As the nations of Europe fracture into ever-smaller entities, secure in the knowledge that the European Union is strong enough to prevent internal friction between the previous fractious factions of Western history, how will these small entities compete with rising waves of immigrants with a different perspective on how one "gets along" with one's neighbors? How will the European Union generate enough military power to protect its vital interests outside its borders?

As it stands, NATO is enough of a patchwork organization as to be virtually incapable of coordinated operations against a determined opponent. Now let's multiply the entities within that force by 10...Do the Scots contribute a brigade to an operation? How about the Walloons? These smaller entities will only be able to muster much smaller forces...and I doubt very much that the EU will ever engender enough loyalty within its citizens to create an EU-wide force that isn't a Frankenstein's mess of smaller nations.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Iran and the domino effect

It's hard to judge how much more Iran could really affect the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (much would certainly depend on how much damage strikes inflicted) but it would be safe to bet that oil prices would be greatly affected if nothing else. And high energy prices are more likely to hurt us and help our current set of rivals than anything else (both in terms of international standing and economic hardships).

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Giving it a kick in the tires

I know..."yawn" - another blog. I'm testing its ease of use with my
iPhone (vs the moblog feature here).

Monday, November 12, 2007

When inevitable isn't

...why do I just have this vision of Republican strategists scrambling to secretly prop Hillary up as they prepare for the general election?

Seriously. Maybe the drawn out campaign for the presidency is paying some dividends this election cycle. As time passes, more and more of the weaknesses and personality flaws of Clinton rise to the surface. Suddenly the candidate of the Establishment is much less of a shoe-in.

But, again, if I was a particularly sneaky Republican strategist, I'd be doing everything I could to prop her up through the Primaries because I think she's actually the weakest of the big three Dems come game time.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Why does the closing song from "Life of Brian" come to mind...?

I know...there's only so much humor one can find in the conflict in Iraq...but this one just brings to mind thoughts of Life of Brian. You know the scene I'm talking about....


CAMPAIGN FOR FREE GALILEE:
Shhh! Shh. Shhh. Shh.
DEADLY DIRK:
Campaign for Free Galilee.
FRANCIS:
Oh. Uh, People's Front of Judea. Officials.
DEADLY DIRK:
Oh.
FRANCIS:
What's your group doing here?
DEADLY DIRK:
We're going to kidnap Pilate's wife, take her back, issue demands.
FRANCIS:
So are we.
DEADLY DIRK:
What?
FRANCIS:
That's our plan!
DEADLY DIRK:
We were here first!

Monday, October 22, 2007

My crazy-assed prediction for the month...

Huckabee takes the GOP nomination for President.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Crazy like a fox?

Apple's iPhone Is Launched In France, Via Vietnam -- iPhone -- InformationWeek

Steve Jobs has taken a lot of heat for releasing Apple's iPhone in Europe without 3G. Crazy, right? I'm not so sure. The hype surrounding the phone has allowed Apple to broker arrangements that might otherwise be considered unheard of:

The iPhone operates on Edge data networks, which are slow, so the availability of Wi-fi which the phone also can use for Internet access, is important to users. France Telecom's embrace of the iPhone would seem to be a marriage made in heaven, because the service provider has more than 2,000 paid Wi-Fi hotspots in Paris alone. In addition there are several hundred more Wi-Fi hotspots -- many of them offered by the city for free. France Telecom and the city of Paris have been squabbling over the free sites.

At the iPhone's unveiling in Berlin, exclusive German provider Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile trumpeted its 8,500-plus Wi-Fi hotspots. In the U.K, Wi-Fi is needed even more as exclusive iPhone service provider O2 can cover just an estimated 30 % of the U.K. population. Apple and O2 have forged an arrangement with Wi-Fi provider the Cloud for iPhone subscribers to use its 7,500 U.K. hotspots.

Can you imagine any of those mobile companies agreeing independently to allow that sort of access to wifi networks? Apple is changing the game even more than it first appears by forcing these two very separate business lines (mobile plus wifi providers) together - and passing that combination on to the customer with a product that will provide longer battery life - and generally faster connections (because of the wifi deals) than any of its rivals - with a better form factor.

What would Apple truly have gained by moving down the 3G route at this time? It appears to me they've scored a coup that benefits both Apple and the consumers. Now if only T-Mobile had reached a deal with Apple in the US...all those hot spots!

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Nicely worded, but...

A link to the transcript of Obama's foreign policy speech. He does a good job of readdressing the threat (to a degree...) that we face in the 21st Century - stateless foes and the anarchic weak states in which such foes thrive. HOWEVER, when one walks down that road - and uses our disengagement from Afghanistan following the Soviet retreat - he can't also speak of Iraq as the "wrong battlefield" or a pressing need to withdraw and let them fight it out. Certainly the case can be made that going into Iraq was the wrong solution to the threat we faced. Now that we have developed a better understanding of that threat, it should be obvious to those who watch the barely constrained anarchy of Iraq that an early military departure will only seed more chaos...and further create the conditions that allowed AQ to grow within Afghanistan and the border regions of Pakistan.

If we depart Iraq too hastily and the Shia majority sees greater collaboration with Iran as the best means for securing their control of the political system; if the Sunni minority finds itself pushed further into the corner by Kurds and Shia, AQI will resurge. And having two or three Brigades of Americans locked in FOBs that are scattered around the country will not offer us the flexibility to act against them. Instead, it will increase their justifications for remaining a force while creating a no-win condition for those forced to hide behind blast walls while the war swirls around them.

That is the lesson from Afghanistan, just as Obama lays it out in his speech:


Above all, I will send a clear message: we will not repeat the mistake of the past, when we turned our back on Afghanistan following Soviet withdrawal. As 9/11 showed us, the security of Afghanistan and America is shared. And today, that security is most threatened by the al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuary in the tribal regions of northwest Pakistan.


Unfortunately, he badly misreads what an early departure from Iraq will look like:

Ending the war will help isolate al Qaeda and give Iraqis the incentive and opportunity to take them out. It will also allow us to direct badly needed resources to Afghanistan. Our troops have fought valiantly there, but Iraq has deprived them of the support they need—and deserve.

Our departure has nothing to do with "ending the war" in Iraq. Something made clear throughout the rest of the speech. If they are in the grips of a civil war, departure will not change that. It will accelerate it. That accelerated cycle of violence will create conditions for extremism to thrive - on all sides of the equation. For the Sunnis, it will mean falling back on groups such as AQI as defenders. For Shiites, it will mean further emboldening of militia groups or complete co-opting of the tools of government in order to exterminate the Sunnis. For the Kurds, it will mean an aggressive push for territory that brings it into further conflict with all of its neighbors. So...when Obama says:


"The first step must be getting off the wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan."



...he's a day late and a dollar short. What used to be the wrong battlefield has become practically the only one that matters. Afghanistan is NOT the heart of the stateless threat we face. One could argue that Pakistan is far closer to that heart than Afghanistan...and I'd agree. But, much as we don't want to turn and face it, we have created a new threat that is far worse than that we faced in the mountains of Afghanistan. We have created the seeds for a chaos that could grip the Middle East. If we choose to let those seeds grow, our children and grandchildren will be using Iraq as the example of foolish abandonment rather than Afghanistan when they are putting together their stump speeches full of easy answers and high minded policy suggestions.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Too much the pessimist?

A Tactics Primer, by William S. Lind

Well...maybe "pessimist" isn't the right term. I would argue that the Americans showed flashes of 3GW in the first Gulf War (think 24th ID) and fought an aggressive campaign of maneuver vs. the Iraqis at the start of the the current conflict. The drawback to 3GW tactics is that they are often inconclusive if they do not completely incapacitate the regenerative powers of their opponent. The Germans used "3GW" from WWI on...and LOST both wars. Primarily because maneuver ended up being less important than mass, depth, and resources. All of their wonderful encirclements failed to knock Russia or Britain out of WWII. Once the Allies had developed their own style of "3GW," they stomped the Germans guts in because maneuver warfare, executed as the coup de grace after an attrition-based campaign, proved to be much more effective.

Looking again at Iraq, an aggressive maneuver campaign meant the Iraqi army was able to disintegrate. Because shedding a uniform did not mean ending hostilities, it turned out to be meaningless. In fact, by forcing the Iraqis out of OUR comfort zone (organized, hierarchical military formations that fit our targeting templates), we merely pushed them into their own comfort zone - one that is well outside of ours. We've been struggling ever since.

All that being said, the US could NOT have fought an attrition campaign prior to the ground war in 2003. With the stated objective(s) of the campaign, causing mass Iraqi casualties would not have helped. Of course, allowing euphoric looting and rioting to degenerate into lawlessness, chaos, crime, and insurgency didn't exactly help things either. But the bottom line truth is this: maneuver warfare tends to be much more effective at the tail end of a campaign of attrition (think of the air war prior to Gulf 1). Western Democracies cannot fight wars of attrition. A well-executed maneuver campaign CAN lead to early (and enduring) success...if the planning continues past the end of organized resistance by the enemy.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Now I don't want to say I told you so but...

Global Guerrillas: JOURNAL: The strong that fight the weak become weak

Ethiopia should have abandoned Somalia (as planned) as soon as the ICU was out of power. Their efforts to achieve "stability" with the aid of the wet blanket that is Somalia's "officially" recognized government only make them appear weaker.

Hard to dispute.

Global Guerrillas: WAR'S NEW EQUILIBRIUM:

"Unlike the previous models of guerrilla wars which sought to replace the state, these new wars have moved to a level of decentralization that makes them both unable to replace the state and extremely hard to eliminate."

Saturday, April 14, 2007

"Meet the metaverse, your new digital home"

Well...maybe not YOURS - but it is certainly home to those who wrote this report and are positioned to benefit from digital advances. An interesting theory - and very likely to be true for the digital elite. But how large a segment of society will that digital elite be? And how much more of a disadvantage will those left out be at?

"The Internet in 2016 will be an all-encompassing digital playground where people will be immersed in an always-on flood of digital information, whether wandering through physical spaces or diving into virtual worlds."

Even today, I am close to having access to a near-constant flood of information with my smart phone, a laptop that rarely leaves my side, and a level of comfort with new technology that leads me to use it routinely. But I don't think that I am anywhere near the norm. And I am on the lower edge of the digital elite - a basic consumer of tools already produced, not deeply involved in the development of such tools. If my ability to rapidly access information elevates me substantially above most of my colleagues and friends (most of them at least comfortable with the basics of the Information Revolution) - and I am merely an informed amateur, how much will continued (rapid) evolution serve to further separate those on opposite sides of the digital divide? An interesting question, I think.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Criminal negligence? Time will tell...

So the V-22 will finally see combat (um...sort of...)

The Pentagon has placed so many restrictions on how it can be used in combat that the plane — which is able to drop troops into battle like a helicopter and then speed away from danger like an airplane — could have difficulty fulfilling the Marines’ longstanding mission for it.

In Iraq, the V-22 will begin to replace the Vietnam-era helicopters that are increasingly facing enemy fire. The limitations on the V-22, which cost $80 million apiece, mean it cannot evade enemy fire with the same maneuvers and sharp turns used by helicopter pilots.

As a result, the craft could be more vulnerable to attack, and may result in the Marines keeping it out of the thick of battle, using it instead for less dangerous tasks.

Luckily, we haven't poured too much of the USMC's limited resources into this 20-year experiment, right? Well...

The V-22 has been the Marines’ top priority — the Pentagon has spent $20 billion so far and has budgeted $54.6 billion for it.
Expensive...but well worth it according to the leaders who will never have to enter a hot LZ inside it. How about those intimately involved in the testing?

“It’s like a bad poker hand, and the Marines have been investing in it for 20 years,” said Philip Coyle, the Pentagon’s top weapons tester from 1994 to 2001. “They might have been better if they invested in brand new helicopters.”
Yeah..but he's just another Pentagon bean-counter, right? What do the troops REALLY think? According to senior Marine leaders who support it, “Every marine who sees one, when they do, a light bulb comes on,” said Colonel Mulhern. “They say, ‘my God.’ ” Translated, that sounds more like this:

“If you lose power on a V-22, you just burn and crash,” said one Pentagon official involved in testing the craft but who was not authorized to speak publicly. “There is no way to survive. ”

[...]

Pentagon reports also say the V-22 is too cramped for the 24 marines it can carry. The marines are so packed into the windowless cabin that they can become airsick, their legs can grow numb and leaving the plane quickly is difficult.

There is no bathroom on board and marines have criticized the “piddle packs” they are to use as insufficient. And, there is no place on board to store them once they are full.

V-22 downdraft is so strong, and moves in so many directions that it can create “brownout” conditions, making it difficult for pilots to see and potentially knocking down marines on the ground.

As a result, when rope ladders are used, the V-22 must hover at higher altitudes, making marines more vulnerable to fire.

“Safety is a big issue,” wrote one V-22 crew chief, in a questionnaire filled out for the Pentagon’s 2005 operational evaluation. “If we had went down in the water we would have most likely lost at least 24 troops because of restricted egress. I felt like I was in a coffin.”


Looking out for the troops. Great to see (heavy sarcasm dripping from entry and running down screen). Perhaps Congress will intervene...as they have continually attempted to do in the War in Iraq...?

But, from 1989 to 1992, Mr. Cheney was beaten back by Congress. Work on the project — the Boeing Company and Bell Helicopter Textron are the main contractors — is spread across 40 states and 2,000 subcontractors, giving the V-22 broad support. More than 100 members of Congress even formed a Tiltrotor Technology Coalition to protect it.
40 states...2000 subcontractors. Hm...guess not.

“We have proven conclusively that this is an extraordinarily fine craft,” said Robert Leder, a spokesman for the Bell-Boeing V-22 program. “It is a very safe craft and will be of tremendous service. ‘’
Remember those words Bob. They may come back to haunt you.

Spero News | Gangs, terrorists, and trade

A "progressive" call to arms: strengthen States (even those with leaders we frown upon) or be prepared to contend with powerful nonstate entities - that are far more difficult to engage, influence, or coerce.

Monday, April 09, 2007

Giving Sadr the credit he's due

So Muqtada al-Sadr is back a bit more prominently in the news over the last few days. Once again, he is urging Shiites (in general) and his followers (specifically) to "resist" the American occupation. And, once again, I see a hint of rejoicing amongst those who stubbornly refuse to understand that Sadr and his militia learned their lessons from the hard fighting of 2004. Yes...from a military perspective, Sadr's militia took a drubbing in 2004 - both in Najaf and in Sadr City. No...they have not chosen to fight in that manner since - despite all of his proclamations, political maneuvering, and paramilitary activity. Instead, the militia has secured the populace from which it draws support, aggressively moved against the population from which it feels most threatened (Sunnis), waged a shadowy campaign against US and British forces relying on effective roadside bombs, and undermined US efforts to build popular support with the Iraqi Shia community - while still benefiting from the heavy Shia hand in government.

So...the same day we see some folks reveling in the "fact" that Sadr wants to "get it on," we also see what "getting it on" means in a war that is much more communication and political maneuvering as it is fighting:

Large crowds of men, women and children, holding flags and anti-US banners, gathered in Najaf and the nearby twin city of Kufa for the protest which is also seen as a show of strength for the cleric who himself has been in self-exile for more than two months, an AFP correspondent said.

[...]

Members of Sadr's movement were seen guiding the crowds, while Iraqi police and army soldiers guarded key checkpoints in and around Najaf and Kufa.

[...]

The cleric, who launched two bloody rebellions against US forces in 2004, is known for his anti-US stance and has emerged as a powerful force in the present Shiite-led Iraqi government.

His political bloc has 32 lawmakers in the 275-member Iraqi parliament and six cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's embattled government.

What does he give us to swing at? Where is a target for us to engage? Who has better learned the lessons of this war?

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Added to my reading list

Thug Life - washingtonpost.com:


"For Daniels, 'ghetto' is a condition -- an addiction, even -- that has metastasized throughout American popular culture. It is an impoverished mindset defined by conspicuous consumption and irresponsibility."

Thursday, March 29, 2007

FIlling the void created by ineffective States

In Rio's Slums, Militias Fuel Violence They Seek to Quell - washingtonpost.com:


Imagine it: A police officer who works for the state never gets any respect, and suddenly he joins a militia and he's worshiped as the man who brings peace to the community,' said Turnowski, who described the militias as dangerous substitutes for the state resources chronically lacking in the city's poor communities.

A sneak peek at a world without States?

Global Guerrillas: THE VIRTUAL CALIPHATE

Well, okay. Maybe a bit of an exaggeration. Still...I found this little snippet particularly interesting:

While territory is claimed, it cannot always be held. As a result, the territory it does hold is very similar to a description of a temporary autonomous zone (TAZ) :
For him, a state’s perimeter extends only so far as men stand with guns to defend it. Tamimi’s vision of statehood suggests he conceives of the ISI as a governmental amoeba, constantly shifting its zone of control across Iraq’s western expanses as ISI forces redeploy. It never controls all of the territory it has claimed, but demands that all residents of that territory swear allegiance to the ISI’s Emir.
The political goods this organization delivers do not include the material. It is assumed that is taken care of by the global marketplace and by the people themselves. What it desires to provide is enforcement of a code of conduct (the PCC has its own rules for this, the ISI's is Sharia).

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Hey...this sounds GREAT!

Ananova - Rocketman takes to the skies:

Other than that whole "jump from a moving plane" bit...

I have to jump from a moving plane as I can't really take off from an airfield like a real plane, I couldn't run that fast', he said laughing, and added: 'I don't have an undercarriage either.

[...]

After I jumped my wings opened like a bird taking wing, I then glided down to 2500m, and ignited the kerosene engines.

There was a short period, 30 seconds, while I waited for them to stabilize and then I began to open the throttle.

Just a short 30 second period waiting for stabilization? THIS looks ready for the commercial market!

Tying a couple stories together...

From WSJ.com: OpinionJournal - Cross Country -

"Troubling incidents began several years ago, when taxi drivers at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport--about three-quarters of whom are Muslim--started refusing to transport passengers carrying alcohol. One woman, returning from France with wine, was turned away by five cabs in succession. Refusals of service now number about 100 a month, and heated altercations have erupted."
[...]


Hassan Mohamud, one of the fatwa signers, praised the two top-light proposal as a national model for accommodating Islam in areas ranging from housing to the workplace. But according to Omar Jamal of the Somali Justice Advocacy Center in St. Paul, MAS is "trying to hijack and radicalize the Somali community for their Middle East agenda."

Ahmed Samatar, a recognized expert on Somali society at Macalester College in St. Paul notes that "There is a general Islamic prohibition against drinking, but carrying alcohol for people in commercial enterprise has never been forbidden." Similarly, Islam prohibits consuming pork, but not touching or scanning it, according to Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf of the American Society for Muslim Advancement in New York. It is, or should be, "a nonissue."

So what happens when these "nonissues" become actual issues? Let's take a look:

[In Germany last week, a judge citing the verse caused a public outcry after she rejected the request for a fast track divorce by a Moroccan-German woman because her husband beat her. The judge, removed from the case, had written that the Koran sanctioned physical abuse.]

The Koran sanctioned physical abuse...therefore the law of the land doesn't apply, right? The rest of the Times article this comes from deals with the struggles of a woman to translate the Koran into English and soften the tone of a particular passage that appears to sanction "beatings" as a way to control the behavior of a man's wife. Beyond the fact that she's trying to reinterpret the passage in order to water it down, I'm a bit frustrated by the whole notion that these passages are still so closely followed that there is a need to reinterpret them in order to protect women.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

And it doesn't even take $5000 Segways...

Paris Embraces Plan to Become City of Bikes - washingtonpost.com:

It has completely transformed the landscape of Lyon -- everywhere you see people on the bikes,' said Jean-Louis Touraine, the city's deputy mayor. The program was meant 'not just to modify the equilibrium between the modes of transportation and reduce air pollution, but also to modify the image of the city and to have a city where humans occupy a larger space.
Did I mention the time I left my house (by bike) ten minutes after my wife left (by car) and caught her three miles or so down the road...? And that was on the outskirts of DC - not the middle of the urban sprawl.

But there is a practical side, too, Dumesnil said. A recent study analyzed different trips in the city "with a car, bike, taxi and walking, and the bikes were always the fastest."

I won't argue that...

U.S. Army training aims at strategy, persuasion | Reuters:

I don't think there's a purely tactical level,' said Brian Fishman, a senior associate at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. 'The strategic level goes down to the platoon leader.


Of course, the question becomes...how does this affect the hierarchical nature of our military when the decision made by the Platoon Leader may be as critical (or more critical) than that made by the Division Commander?

Changing the paradigm

Grand Strategy IV - How America Can Prosper, by Fabius Maximus:


"You cannot eat soup with a knife.

You must first change the conditions of the problem."

Actually, he's got quite a few quotables in this one:

Whether America’s cultural “aggression” is deliberate or inadvertent is not relevant to those defending against it.


I think this brings us back to a fundamental truth...the end of the Cold War postured us, as a nation, in a position from which we were doomed to come into conflict with others. As a hyperpower, we influenced too many too much and became too easy to blame for anything that happened (or didn't happen...) just because it only seems obvious that such power gives us the ability, as a nation, to affect anything and everything. It's a false assumption, of course. But that hardly matters to our newly organized enemies, does it?

Looking for more good quotes? He throws us this one from Kung Fu as well:

Disciple Caine: Master, do we seek victory in contention?

Master Kan: Seek rather not to contend.

Disciple Caine: But shall we not then be defeated?

Master Kan: We know that where there is no contention, there is neither defeat nor victory. The supple willow does not contend against the storm, yet it survives.

From episode #1 of the television show “Kung Fu” (1972)

Moving away from Kung Fu quotes, we do get a more reasonable strategy - one simple enough that a chaotic democracy just MIGHT be able to execute it successfully:

  1. Do not increase the cohesion of our enemies. Try not to make new enemies.

  2. Don’t gamble. Adopt slow but sure tactics.

  3. Survive until we win.

I'm a big fan of simple elegance, by the way. And I'm also a big fan of occasionally throwing out a quote to appease Dan:

Crusades are more fun, at least for those who do not actually fight them. High risk endeavors generate excitement and the prospect of great gains, and accrue power to their leaders. Until failure. Then the bills come due.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Know what I'd find interesting...?

Summary of Findings: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2007

A longer survey, reaching back since probably WW2 that documented the trends - and perhaps matched them to the popularity of national political figures (most notably the Prez).

Thursday, March 22, 2007

One part sickening, one part trend-setting

Wired News: UAV Fooled to Hide Iraq Murder

Marines acting as a death squad: sickening.

Deliberate deception operations conducted at the lowest tactical level to fool UAVs and other aerial platforms: a peek into the future of warfare - and proof that additional technology and unmanned platforms will always have difficulty replacing boots on the ground.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

This one's interesting for a couple of reasons...

Firstly, it points to the instability we helped generate when we ran the Islamic Courts Union out of power in the hopes of nabbing a few individuals associated with Al Qaeda. Secondly, it points to the power of the web. How? Check out this little snippet:

An insurgent group known as the Popular Resistance Movement in the Land of the Two Migrations, which is linked to the ousted Council of Islamic Courts, claimed it was the target of the government offensive but said its fighters repulsed the attack.

"They were unable to bear the pain of bullets coming from all four directions," the group said in a statement posted on the Islamic militia's Web site.

A government official, who agreed to discuss the combat situation only if not quoted by name, said the offensive focused on parts of the city controlled by the Habr Gedir clan, which supported more radical elements of the Islamic militia and opposes the interim administration.

Yep. Middle of Somalia. Ragtag militia fighting in one of the most chaotic cities in the world...but they get information out over the web quickly - and I'd bet with a better spin than that managed by the Somali "government."

Interesting.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Very interesting political stuff

In '08 Race, Web Tactics Are Even More Integral - WSJ.com

So, for me, it comes down to one question, phrased two different ways...built from an understanding that the Republicans (at least in 2004) have shown a much better system for generating typical "grass roots" support while Democrats have tended to better cultivate "digital roots."

1. At what point will "Digital Roots" become a more powerful force than "Grass Roots"

or, perhaps better put:

2. At what point will Internet usage become so common and comfortable for a large enough body of Americans that "Digital Roots" and "Grass Roots" will no longer be distinguishable from each other?

I would argue it is very easy to make the distinctions now. Matter of fact, you can start by looking at the Internet statistics displayed in this WSJ article...John McCain (leading among Republicans) has had 296k unique visitors to his campaign site. That would place him a distant 4th among Democrats. I'll skip comparing the MySpace friends numbers because I am convinced those are still, essentially, meaningless.

So "Grass Roots" support remains more a Republican specialty. "Digital Roots" belong to the Dems. How will that affect the race? It certainly makes it easier for Dems to get their message out more quickly (if they are well organized) and likely gives them a greater ability to raise cash on short notice (assuming they also hold a lead in online fund raising - something I haven't looked into very deeply).

As the article says,


Greater emphasis by campaigns on the Internet "is recognition that the game is radically changing ... It's the Moore's Law in politics. Every two years it all doubles or more but this year, it's more than doubled."

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Argh!

192 UN recognized states in 10 minutes

How could I have missed places that I've been? Ah well. I got exactly half - 96 in ten minutes.

USNews does a bit of a compare and contrast

US News and World Report provides a series of short vignettes highlighting the best of Europe, Japan, and much of the rest of the industrialized world. Great stories, fun to read, nice to imagine, not always so easy to implement - or likely to be effective in a heterogenous, growing, free-wheeling culture like ours. Here's what the report had to say on Finish schools:


USNews.com: Finland: The Secret to Smarter Schools

It's always interesting to hear of social successes in the various Nordic countries. But I usually see a degree of unrealistic comparison as well. Is the key to Finland's success really the choices they've made in public education? Or is it a homgenous culture in which teachers don't have to worry about multiple languages, a myriad of cultures, and the growing power of a counter-culture that scorns education and respect for authority?

Not so easy to fix those pieces. Considering the decline in Finland's native birth rate - and the increase in immigration (see here), we may see them looking our way for new methods to deal with integrating many cultures into one in the not-so-distant future.

All that being said, I certainly like the idea of elevating the social status of teachers as a means of correcting poor education:

Perhaps the most potent secret weapon in Finland's success is well-trained teachers. In 1970, as the country began to overhaul its system, it mandated that teachers for all grades must obtain at least a master's degree. Today, teacher-education programs at universities are highly competitive, in part because teachers enjoy high prestige in Finnish society. "The status of teachers is comparable to doctors and lawyers," says Jouni Valijarvi, director of the Institute for Educational Research at the University of Jyvaskyla.


Of course, how do you raise standards of performance to appropriate levels when faced with a teacher's union designed to protect current (vested) interests? Ah...for the simplicity of life in Finland...

I just like the turn of phrase...

Venezuela to Give Currency New Name and Numbers - New York Times:


We’re witnessing policy in the form of window dressing, all carried out at the whim of one man whose strong point is not economics,” said Hugo Faría, an economist at the Institute of Higher Management Studies, a private business school here. “Anyone who sees a 12 ½-cent coin as a remedy for this country’s problems isn’t thinking too clearly.

Another interesting note buried in the article speaks to Chavez's anti-Imperialist rhetoric (unless he's talking about his own imperialist ambitions, that is...)

Mr. Chávez has no intention of limiting his attempts at monetary reform to Venezuela. “One day in Latin America we will have our own currency,” he said on his television show, and he proposed naming it after Antonio José de Sucre, a Venezuelan aristocrat and independence fighter who was a friend of Bolívar’s.

New Left, New Progressives, Old Liberalism...what does it all mean?

TCS Daily : Technology - Commerce - Society:

An interesting take on American liberalism and conservatism - and how the definitions have changed with time. More interesting to me, though, was the notion that at least a portion of the Democratic Party (or its "Progressive" wing) is returning toward the 1960's idea(s) of the New Left:


Unlike the anti-business, quasi-socialist progressivism of Teddy Roosevelt, modern progressives, in the words of Markos Moulitsas, seek 'restrained government, fiscal responsibility, and—most important of all—individual freedoms.' (Italics in original.)

As the article suggests, the ideas of the New Left (and now the modern Progressives) are really the ideas of the old Right within the United States (or, more accurately, classic Liberalism...confused yet?). The party of Calvin Coolidge more accurately represents the beliefs of the current Progressive movement than the party of FDR. I think it was this discontinuity that shut the New Left down in the first place. The Old Left had leveraged all of its strength into creating a powerful, inherently illiberal government from the 30s on through the 60s. The "New Left" was neither strong enough nor mature enough to reverse this. Instead, they jumped on an issue they COULD affect (the anti-war movement of the 60s and 70s) and, essentially, lost their soul.

Fast forward 30-40 years. The State is weakening, individuals are becoming increasingly empowered by the Information Revolution, and the Republican Party has lost its way from the internal pressures generated by a desire to protect the power of the State, social conservatism, and the sort of corruption that always sets in when a party spends too much time in power. Suddenly, the field looks open to the ideas of individual liberty espoused by the New Left and the New Progressives.

So here's my question: will the "New Progressives" run down the rabbit hole of the anti-war movement THIS time as well?

A strong counter-rally surprises the Post

Veterans, Others Denounce Marchers - washingtonpost.com

The large turnout surprised even some counter-demonstrators. Polls show public opinion turning against the war in Iraq, and the November election was widely seen as a repudiation of the administration's policy.

"I've never been to a war rally. I hoped I'd never have to," said Jim Wilson, 62, a Vietnam vet from New Hampshire. "We're like what they used to call the silent majority."

If Mr. Wilson (quoted above) is correct in his assumption, this is likely an issue that goes beyond the anti-war/pro-war marchers in Washington. It speaks to the organizing power of the Information Age and how deeply it has penetrated into American society.

But the war protesters have gone too far, Lee and others said. At a Jan. 27 antiwar rally, some protesters spray-painted the pavement on a Capitol terrace. Others crowned the Lone Sailor statue at the Navy Memorial on Pennsylvania Avenue with a pink tiara that had "Women for Peace" written across it.

Word of those incidents ricocheted around the Internet.

"That was the real catalyst, right there," said Navy veteran Larry Bailey. "They showed they were willing to desecrate something that's sacred to the American soul."

And, of course, any time I see people respond to the foolishness that is ANSWER, it makes me feel warm inside...

Saturday, March 17, 2007

The yin and yang of global warming debate?

Pajamas Media: FILM: THE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE = yin

RealClimate Response=yang

If I were judging solely by emotional maturity of the commentors on these two sites, I'm afraid the yangs would have it....

Israeli analysis of the PA "unity" government

ANALYSIS: The unity gov't may be the last nail in Fatah's coffin - Haaretz - Israel News:

Some disturbing points here. At least when Fatah resisted Hamas, they put themselves in a position to act as a better choice come the next election cycle. External pressure on Hamas (and thus the efficiency of government) had the possibility of strengthening Fatah's hand during the next election cycle. By instead providing a moderate face to Hamas extremism, they seem to quietly be admitting there is no peaceful solution with Israel.


Meanwhile, Hamas is continuing its quiet revolution. Recently 11 Hamas members were appointed to senior posts in the PA Education Ministry, and the number of hours of religious studies has been increased by about 20 percent.

Hamas reaches the hearts of the people, and one of the best ways to do this has always been through the mosques. In 2000, there were 100 of them in Ramallah; today there are 190. Without laws to limit it, Hamas has managed to lead a cultural change in Palestinian society. Most women in the territories wear head coverings, including some who do so to avoid public criticism. Fewer restaurants sell alcohol and halls for weddings and other festivities are being asked not to host belly-dancers.

...and then there's the AP perspective:

Palestinians installed a new, more moderate coalition government on Saturday, in hopes of persuading the international community to end its isolation of the Palestinian Authority and lift a year of bruising sanctions.

Rupert Smith's Utility of Force

Author Rupert Smith's lengthy career in the British military has provided him with a set of unique insights with which to judge modern war. As a conventional commander, he led Great Britain's 1st Armored Division during the first Gulf War in 1990 and 1991. As a less conventional commander, he led British forces in Northern Ireland from 1996 to 1998. In between these two starkly different British commands, he as also served as the commanding general of UN forces in Bosnia (UNPROFOR) during 1995. From this varied experience at the top of both British and international military organizations, General Smith has arrived at what might, at first glance, be viewed as a shocking conclusion:

War no longer exists. Confrontation, conflict, and combat undoubtedly exist all around the world...[n]onetheless, war as cognitively known to most non-combatants, war as a battle in a field between men and machinery, war as a massive deciding event in international affairs: such war no longer exists(pg 3).

While he leads with what might, at first glance, appear to be a nonsensical statement, it is the caveats he follows with that shape his debate. He more specifically states that "industrial war no longer exists" (pg 4) before getting to the heart of his argument: war between states has largely been replaced by war amongst the people. As Gen Smith describes it, "[w]ar amongst the people is both a graphic description of modern warlike situations, and also a conceptual framework: it reflects the hard fact that there is no secluded battlefield upon which armies engage, nor are there necessarily armies, definitely not on all sides” (pg 5). Smith’s experiences in both Northern Ireland and Bosnia strengthen his understanding of this shift in the nature of war. In both theaters, he found himself struggling to adapt military formations to an enemy that often demonstrated few of the traits we associate with armed forces – all while striving to protect large bodies of civilians who moved freely across his battlefield.

Before delving more deeply into the history of modern European warfare – his chosen means of leading us to his own conclusions, Smith provides us with further clarification on war amongst the people. In essence, it “is characterized by six major trends… [t]he ends for which we fight are changing…[w]e fight amongst the people…[o]ur conflicts tend to be timeless…[w]e fight so as not to lose the force…[o]n each occasion new uses are found for old weapons…” and finally, “[t]he sides are mostly non-state” (pg 19).

After clearly laying out his thesis, Smith divides his book into three distinct sections as he walks us through the evolution from industrial war between states into war amongst the people. These three sections, “Interstate Industrial War,” “Cold War Confrontation,” and “War Amongst the People” start with the rise of Napoleon and his use of the state’s assets to force decisive battle, describe the Cold War’s effects on senior military leaders’ understanding (or lack thereof) of conflict and confrontation in a nuclear-armed world, and end with a hard look at the modern military struggle to deal with a style of warfare that fits uncomfortably outside the tenets of conventional Western military thought. Being a Western military leader, Smith cannot leave the book as merely an explanation of modern warfare. He finishes by describing what this new change in warfare means for the West - and how Western leaders must adapt to this new reality in order to re-establish what he repeatedly calls the utility of force.

In outlining the origins of interstate industrial war, Smith begins with Napoleon and his ability to both wield the tools of the state and to achieve strategic objectives through the use of concentrated military force (the decisive battle). For Smith, Napoleon’s genius rested in his ability to both harness the resources of the State and to deliver the product of those resources to the critical point on the battlefield in such a way as to force decisive battles. Napoleon, unlike the majority of his contemporaries, understood what he hoped to achieve through his use of force:

His strategic political aim was precisely to change rulers and states, largely in order to make them part of his empire. His genius lay in marrying the military means he created and the method he devised of using them to achieve the end: decisive defeat of the enemy force (pg 41).

From here, he takes us forward through the Prussian innovations that formalized Napoleon’s genius and created a more systematic framework for harnessing the tools of the state. As he guides us through Prussian innovations, he leans heavily on Clausewitz’s trinity and his own belief that military force must be applied to achieve political ends. The results of both the Austro-Prussian conflict and the Franco-Prussian conflict are held up to this light and, from Smith’s perspective, we see shrewd political maneuvering tied to the use of force – until the end of the Franco-Prussian War. As he sees it, Prussian posturing and unnecessary political humiliation inflicted upon France sets the groundwork for future conflict rather than successful integration of captured terrain. An example, as Smith puts it, of force moving beyond its utility (pp 105-106). Unstated in this assessment of the Franco-Prussian conflict is the fact that Prussia’s “decisive battles” with the French only set the conditions for World War One rather than permanently settling the conditions for Prussian/German security.

Smith’s approach to the evolution of European warfare from the 17th to 20th centuries is nothing earth-shattering. It is not intended to be so. Instead, he attempts to clarify conventional historical wisdom on the evolution of Western military thought as he proceeds toward the later sections of the book – those in which he will depart from convention and seek to impress his own ideas upon the reader. From the Prussian victories of mid-19th century, he brings us to the two perfect storms of industrial interstate war: World Wars One and Two. World War One presents two disturbing trends for Smith: the completion of Clausewitz’s trinity as the people became as fully engaged as government (under the Napoleonic model) and the military (under the Prussian model); and the horrible realization that this incorporation of government, military, and people did NOT lead to quick, decisive victory but, instead, to horrific casualties and bloody stalemate on all sides. Once again, in Smith’s eyes, the utility of force (in this case massive force) vanished (pp 116,119). Unfortunately, the German military refused to accept this harsh truth and thus invented the notion that a lack of popular support led to defeat, undercutting the military in the process. This refusal to accept the failure of military action to achieve political aims laid the groundwork for World War Two even as the first Great War came to a conclusion.

Smith does not dwell long upon World War Two – other than to make note of two key points: the deliberate targeting of civilians by all sides served only to strengthen the trinity of people, army, and state – thus achieving an effect opposite of that desired. Secondly, as the best example of both forms of military mass – massing of state resources and massing of destructive power on the battlefield – the atomic bombs dropped on Japan to end World War Two changed the face of warfare irrevocably.

Despite the losses generated by total interstate industrial war, the two biggest winners of World War Two (America and the Soviet Union) deliberately designed their militaries in the post-war years to once again engage in decisive conventional battle. At the same time, they moved to develop the nuclear weapons systems and doctrines that would prevent these conventional forces from ever meeting in such an engagement. Nuclear weapons became the trump card that drained the utility of conventional force between nuclear-armed rivals while opening the door to smaller wars (or conflicts, in Smith's parlance) – those amongst the people (pg 154). The two large power blocs both sought to exploit this form of warfare for their own gain while attempting to avoid allowing these conflicts to spread and create larger confrontations. On those occasions when Soviet or American conventional forces – designed solely to face each other on the battlefields of Western Europe – were committed to these new conflicts, they often found little utility for the force they could bring to bear. Whether it was Afghanistan, Algeria, or Vietnam, conventional armies from the most powerful nations in the world routinely found it difficult to apply their military power in a manner that created the conditions for victory. To explain the growing Western inability to apply military force directly to small wars (a marked contrast from the previous two centuries’ examples of European colonialism and imperialism), Smith commits an entire chapter to describing the growing sophistication of guerrilla campaigns while focusing on a simple truth that explains the general difference between colonial wars of the 19th and 20th centuries:

The colonial expeditions of the 19th century succeeded because for the most part the polities they faced could neither conceive of acts that had an effect on the popular political will in some distant country nor were likely to empower the people by telling them to fight independently of the ruling authority” (pg 162).
With the major conventional powers unable to bring massive force to bear – either because of the possibility of provoking nuclear war or because their people no longer showed a willingness to join the Clausewitzian trinity (effectively making “decisive” warfare nearly impossible within democratic societies), those who wished to practice war amongst the people were free to hone their craft. In fact, many of these combatants received substantial assistance from one (or both) of the two superpowers even as they worked toward perfecting a style of warfare that undermined their sponsors’ own military efforts. Smith describes the two primary “lines of operation” typically employed by partisans, guerrillas, or terrorists to neutralize larger conventional forces as “the propaganda of the deed” and “the strategy of provocation” (pg 169). Also key to this description of revolutionary war is the notion that revolutionaries tend to apply force only at the tactical level; the objectives at operational and strategic level revolve around shaping the will and intention of the population. This distinction changes the objective of applying force:

In industrial war the object is to destroy the opponent’s army and to prevent his government from making war and protecting the people, thus breaking the triangular linkage [of Clausewitz’s trinity]. In the antithesis the object is to constantly and expensively undermine the stronger army and to thereby break the will of the government and the people to make war (pg 177).

Key to Smith’s reinterpretation of warfare in the nuclear age is the notion that “war” has largely been replaced by - often long-running - confrontations that periodically escalate into conflicts. His central examples for this paradigm are the Cold “War” itself - to Smith, it is clearly a long-running confrontation rather than a war - and the American confrontation with Iraq – that essentially ran from 1990 into the present. Because the US chose to interpret Desert Storm as an older-style war in which force was applied to achieve immediate and permanent resolution, the confrontation dragged on and force applied by the US was often counterproductive since it was applied within the context of providing immediate resolution of a specific conflict rather than advancing toward a resolution of the longer-running confrontation.

Shifting to the post-Cold War era, Smith presents a strong case that the removal of this strategic-level conflict has fundamentally forced the paradigm of “War amongst the people” from an underlying current to the forefront; powerful nations no longer view the sponsoring of revolutionaries or counterrevolutionaries strictly from the perspective of weakening their major opponent – or as a minor sideshow in the larger strategic struggle to vanquish the other side through whatever means were deemed necessary.

In contrast to these hard strategic ends, we tend now to conduct operations for…sub-strategic objectives…we intervene in, or even decide to escalate to, a conflict in order to establish a condition in which the political condition can be achieved by other means and in other ways. We seek to create conceptual space for diplomacy, economic initiatives, political pressure and other measures to create a desired political outcome of stability, and if possible democracy (pg 272).
This fundamental shift in responsibilities has not been accompanied by a fundamental shift in the organization of modern militaries. Instead, military leaders and planners have sought to identify the next conventional opponent they will face while leaving commanders in the field, saddled with the responsibility to succeed in these wars amongst the people, to make do with forces and equipment that are often wholly inappropriate.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Sadr's boys reading the tea leaves?

Sadr Urges Followers to Resist U.S. Forces; Thousands Rally - washingtonpost.com:

Interesting words from a subordinate commander within the Mahdi Militia:


"'People are becoming thirsty for peace, for security, right now,' Hussein said. 'We all depend on the government and the security forces.'"

U.S. success or failure will likely hinge on the truth of his words - and the ability of US and ISF to be seen as the providers of that security.

Mugabe's Zimbabwe

Legacy of a 'lucky coward' | International News | News | Telegraph

She didn't "know" if she was "covert?"

USNews.com: Blogs: News Desk Blog

Yeah right. [scrambling for my bulls*&^ flag]. And we should believe her because of how straightforward her husband has been...?

Or perhaps we should believe her because she was so upfront about said involvement of hubby...?

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Time will tell

Early progress in Baghdad crackdown - Conflict in Iraq - MSNBC.com

The key to success may rest in the deployment and activities of increased trooops - more so than the increase itself. If so, then it might be possible to continue improving conditions within Baghdad. If that can be maintained for a long enough period of time, eventually Iraqi leaders might find it more beneficial to advance their causes through the political system rather than through the barrel of a gun or the fanaticism of a suicide bomber.

We shall see.

US Attorney and presidential politics

OpinionJournal - Featured Article

The WSJ weighs in on the dismissal of US attorneys...and reminds us of previous efforts by former administrations.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Interesting stuff

Defector spied on Iran for years-News-World-Middle East-TimesOnline

There are quite a few interesting nuggets in this one:

A Revolutionary Guard commander in Lebanon during the training and organization of Hezbollah.


Asgari’s escape has provoked alarm in the Iranian regime. “Asgari is a gold mine for western intelligence,” said an Israeli defence source. “We have been following him for years, especially since the late 1980s when he was commander of the Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon.”

The possibility that he was recruited by Israeli Intelligence but believed he had been recruited by some other Western service.

It is unclear which intelligence organisation he was spying for. “He probably was working for Mossad but believed he was working for a European intelligence agency,” said an Israeli defence source.
The daring escape.

A daring getaway via Damascus was organised by western intelligence agencies after it became clear that his cover was about to be blown. Iran’s notorious secret service, the Vavak, is believed to have suspected that he was a high-level mole.
I guess the more important question will become just how much did he know about Iran's connections to foreign terror cells - and how recent is his information. If he's been operationally marginalized since making the mistake of pointing out corruption within the Rev Guards, his information might not be any more current than what Israel has been tracking already.

For some reason this one feels more unique than the sort of spy vs. spy operations that punctuated the Cold War years. Here we're talking about a deeper cultural/religious divide between entities - or at least most of us imagine that to be so. For an Iranian to defect to the West - outside his region, his religion, and his culture seems very unusual.

Change a few words and...

Italy's Mafia Mess - Newsweek: International Editions - MSNBC.com

...you'd think this was an article straight from Baghdad.

The deputy police chief of the Naples homicide unit, Pietro Morelli, acknowledges that authorities can occupy the city's toughest slums, but they can't hold them. They can't even prevent the Camorra from setting up its own checkpoints just down the street from those of the authorities. ''When police come to get them, they melt away," says Morelli. Only a few local people will speak against the organization, and out of bitterness, not expectation of change. If peace returns to the streets, it's as likely to be the result of truces reached within the organization, as of order imposed by Rome.
I stumbled across this one quite accidentally. First step? Coming across this site (lens culture) and looking at some pics from a photo book apparently called "Made in Italy: CGIL 100." Next step? Seeing a photo that made reference to the Comorra Wars of 2005 - a term that I was patently unfamiliar with.

We have some friends who use to live in Naples while assigned to NATO...their stories of mafia influence made for interesting dinner conversation but I guess the extent of their strength didn't really sink in...

Taking a walk with Sisyphus.

US commander strolls streets of contested city, eating ice cream and talking progress - International Herald Tribune

The article I highlighted yesterday dealt very specifically with conditions in Hit...as does this one. Once again, we see an effort to reestablish some sort of rule of law within the city. As is the unfortunate norm, it's almost as if 1-36 didn't spend a year there trying to do the same. Much as had been the case when 1-36 replaced a Marine MEU that had "succeeded" in its counterinsurgency campaign.

Combined, these reports easily lead one to view the COIN campaign in Iraq as a Sisyphean challenge. For a more optimistic spin on things, check out this Wikipedia entry highlighting US military efforts in Hit...and then sink back to the realization that all of the good work done there previously is now being done again - as if for the first time - by the next unit in the hopper - 2/7 IN from 3rd ID.

My personal belief, putting aside strategic and grand strategic issues, is that the method(s) of unit rotation employed by the US Military in Iraq prevent long term success. As each unit rotates in, Sisyphus' boulder rolls back down the hill while they figure out how to push it back up without getting killed in the process. Then, as they start to get some momentum, bam. Time to rotate. Time for the next unit to start from scratch. Hrmph.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

An article from last September...

In a Volatile Region of Iraq, U.S. Military Takes Two Paths - washingtonpost.com

...that highlights the difficulties American troops will likely encounter as they try to shift tactics more toward the touchy-feely rapport/reconnaissance work of Special Forces - but find themselves hampered by a training mindset and temperament that prefers direct conflict as a means to achieve objectives. The difficulty: military objectives can only lay the groundwork for political conditions. If those military operations create conditions that hamper political progress, they become meaningless at best and counter-productive at worst.

WaPost takes a look at the growing divide between Gaza and West Bank

Under Pressure, Palestinian Territories Pull Apart - washingtonpost.com

"We blame the Israelis, and the Israelis blame our uprising," said Mahmoud,
who worked in Tel Aviv hotels before losing his work permit when Israel left
Gaza. Over the years, the brothers, who once shared a room and long afternoons
of soccer on the nearby beach, have missed each other's weddings and the births
of their children. When their father died in 2002, Ahmed was absent from the
funeral procession.

"The political situation exists now with no solution," Mahmoud said.
"They will never be one state."

Friday, March 09, 2007

Hm.

Captain's Quarters

It'll be interesting to see if anything comes of this. And, of course, it's interesting how matter of fact it's become for CIA paramilitary units to both move against terrorists and have those moves (at least kinda-sorta) documented in the Press (in this case, the British Press).

"Reports that the trail has gone stone cold are not correct," an American
official said.


We shall see, eh?

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Tactical actions...

16 Civilians Die as U.S. Troops Open Fire in Afghanistan - New York Times

...with Strategic implications:

"The shooting is a setback for American forces in Afghanistan, who have been working to contain the continuing insurgent attacks, in particular roadside bombs and suicide attacks, and win the support of the people with reconstruction and development projects. Deadly riots shook Kabul last May after American troops were involved in a fatal car crash and then opened fire on the crowd."

The Age of Individual Empowerment is going to continue to be a tough one for traditional powers.

A disturbing look into Russia's "victory" in Chechnya

USNews.com: Chechnya, a War That Is Gone but Not Forgotten

Chechnya slowly - kinda-sorta - rises from the ashes of conflict but does so in an all too familiar manner. Its new "government" is little more than a shell used by local warlords and "big men" to justify their own bases of power. I see signs of the same arising in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Palestinian Authority...the facade of government becomes little more than a hasty paint job slapped over criminals, tribal chiefs, militias, and warlords. In fact, Hezbollah's efforts to pull the mask of "legitimate government" over the face of their own actions is essentially the same.

This appears to me as a regression in the development of the State. The power of the State becomes a spoil of war to be captured like any other booty to be found on the battlefield. Institutions like the UN, designed to preserve the sanctity of nation-states, tend to reward such behavior, making it far more difficult to ensure, encourage, or compel good governance.

A snippet from the US News report on Chechnya:

Day-to-day security in swaths of Chechnya is left to locally recruited Kremlin-loyalist forces, who run things much as they please. This makes their de facto chief, Putin-appointed President Ramzan Kadyrov, perhaps the most important man in Chechnya. Kadyrov, 30, is the son of a prominent Islamic leader who in 1999 abandoned the rebels for the Russian side and served as Kremlin-installed local president before being assassinated in 2004.

[...]

What does cause jitters in Moscow is that the bulk of the estimated 7,000 armed men associated with Kadyrov are themselves former rebel fighters enticed or coerced into switching sides. "Everyone knows the so-called pro-Moscow militias in Chechnya are in fact tribal military formations loyal only to their chiefs," said Moscow-based military affairs specialist Pavel Felgenhauer. "Basically, the rebels in Chechnya have entered a rest period and are getting training under the Russian flag."
Hrmph.

Let's be realistic for a moment here

Beijing increases defense spending - International Herald Tribune

I know there are a lot of pundits within the US who enjoy pointing to China as a new mega-villain - another black-hatted rogue that allows us to don our own white hat that has been gathering dust in the corner since the early 90s...but, frankly, trying to force China into that role worries me more than increased Chinese defense spending. Why?

  1. China is a giant, nuclear power. We aren't going to be waging conventional war with them any time in the near future. That's just the bottom line. The benefits will very likely never outweigh the risks.
  2. Our military-industrial establishment LOVES pointing out "threats" that justify maintaining our preferred force structure, doctrine, and procurement processes. We don't, as a military, like fighting the wars we get asked to fight. We WANT to prepare for the Big One. So painting China as the next big military opponent only pushes us further down the wrong road.
  3. It drives us into a more confrontational stance with China simply because we choose to view them as a military opponent. We can't stop China from growing more powerful. We can try to avoid making Chinese leaders assume they can only rise if they weaken us.

Okay...enough pontificating on a subject I probably don't know enough about anyway...

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Interesting sentiment...

Iranian President to Visit Saudi Arabia - New York Times

“They know that the best thing that can happen to Iran at this stage is for the Americans to attack them.”

American units practice what the manual preaches

Soldiers Shift to Baghdad Outposts - washingtonpost.com

The outposts reflect one of the first efforts in Baghdad to actually practice what our COIN manuals (even the older manual that has recently been replaced) have always preached...life in a counterinsurgency campaign is intelligence gathering, beat walking, and relationship building...all intended to provide enough clarity so offensive operations strike at the right targets, at the right time, without the operational and strategic repercussions that often accompany poorly judged tactical targeting.

Good stuff...as long as all of the participants get it. At a higher level, I think that understanding is developing:


"We're going to get more information, and when we get that information, we can target better, and if we target better, we can get more bad guys off the street and we don't hurt the locals while we do it," he said. "And the other part of getting out here, and I think it's something we've missed in the mission for a while . . . is our purpose to protect the people."
Down at the troop level (where, ultimately, it must be understood)? Jury's still out on that one:

"These little combat outposts, they are more exposed: Your routes in here are very limited, and they're definitely watching us," Staff Sgt. Marcel Weaver, 35, said of the insurgents operating in the neighborhood around the base. A grenade "attack is coming, I can guarantee that."
How do you balance the tactical necessity of force protection with the long-term operational/strategic necessity for securing the population and building intelligence through constant presence? Especially with an army that doesn't want to be trained to do that? While American public opinion and political will wavers?

A Contrarian opinion of the US from the front lines of a Christian/Muslim confrontation

Contrary to global trends, Nigerians love America | csmonitor.com

According to Mr. Oyewumi, northern Nigerian Muslims are less likely to have a favorable opinion of America for the same reason that many Christians in the south look up to the US – the war on terrorism.

"America is seen as the leader of the Christian West against the Islamic world," says Oyewumi, a Muslim, but also of the southern Yoruba ethnic group. "The religion factor is crucial."



Interesting. I wonder how Ethiopians, struggling with a similar religious conflict, view the US.

Here's the whole study. Of note, world opinions of China, somewhat on the rise over the past few years, are diving as well. Personally, I think people tend to fear too much power (Economic, political, military, cultural, or otherwise) in one entity. China enjoyed a pass while others viewed them as a counterweight to the US. As they've grown more powerful, they're seen as a hegemonistic threat in their own right.

My personal theory on US worldwide (un)popularity is this: we were doomed to lose ground following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the acceleration of globalization. While the Bush Administration's questionable execution of the GWOT certainly don't help, they only speed a natural process. As the world's most powerful nation, we take the blame for what we don't do as well as what we do. As the most culturally powerful nation, we bear the brunt of anti-globalists because American companies, American media, and American faces have been most visible as the Information Age blossoms. It's kinda like NASCAR fans that dislike products endorsed by drivers they don't like...people don't like many of the consequences (or supposed consequences) of globalization. When they look for someone to blame...well, there's McDonalds. Or Microsoft. Or Hollywood.

Combine all that with the incessant media coverage of the war in Iraq, the improper actions of handfuls of Strategic Corporals, and...surprise, surprise, people look unfavorably upon the US. Many on the Left look to Democratic leadership to somehow reverse this natural trend...unlikely. Especially because many view globalization as nothing more than a populist tool for spurring the masses to vote. That in itself will prevent America from regaining the shining image it often carried through the Cold War as the white-hatted protagonist.

For those who were curious, I take my definition of "confrontation" from Rupert Smith's new book on modern warfare.

Decline of the State...?

Danish Police Fear More Street Riots - washingtonpost.com

As individuals become more empowered, it would seem that the likely loser(s) will continue to be the State. This is merely another example. Police evict squatters. Dribs and drabs from leftist groups, anarchists, and bored kids present an international response. Communications, near-nonexistent borders in Europe, and the radical expansion of media sources (allowing small groups to focus on enough news and "facts" to create the echo chamber effect) lead to spontaneous "insurgencies."

And to expand further on the subject...


Officer Robert Musser, Montgomery's top gang investigator, said yesterday that the group's membership reflects a growing trend in area gangs: They are mixed-race, loosely organized collections of youths that coalesce because they attend the same school or live in the same neighborhood. The groups often change their monikers several times, he said.
A lot of folks have spent a lot of time since the World Wars worrying about extreme nationalism - loyalty to the State that, in effect, puts too much power in its hands. Is this new trend going to be viewed as better or worse in the long run?

Friday, March 02, 2007

From the WaPost

Sunni Insurgents Ascendant in Iraq's Caldron of Violence - washingtonpost.com

Interesting split in strategies between the two main insurgent protagonists. The Shia lay low (likely in hopes of waiting out the surge...a lesson learned from the bloody 2004 battles with the Coalition?) while Sunni insurgent groups shoot to paint the surge as a failure - perhaps in the hope of driving the US out of Iraq before ISF (or Shia militias...or a merger of the two) are capable of dealing with them, creating the conditions for a failed state in which they are likely to retain more freedom of maneuver (as opposed to having the combined weight of the Iraqi state's security organs plus the Shia militias turned upon them). It'll be interesting to see who's gamble pays off here. I'd like to bet on the Shia simply because putting their heads down makes them more likely to get tied up into the political process if the surge manages to set the stage for it.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Hezbollah rebuilds

Yeah, it'd be great to think Israeli military action defanged Hezbollah last summer. I'm betting not. On the plus side, UNIFIL has at least pushed Hezbollah's frontline positions much further north. And hey...maybe this time they won't be within "danger close" distances to UN observation posts:

In one case, a bunker complex 100 feet underground covering an area of almost a square mile was built within 300 yards of a UNIFIL observation post and an Israeli army position on the border, but its existence remained hidden until after the war.

"They let us see certain things like their observation posts along the border fence, but all the time they were building an underground city in the south that we never knew existed," says Timur Goksel, who retired as UNIFIL's senior adviser in 2003.

The term "Cognitive Dissonance" comes to mind

The new MNF-I Commander's aggressive counter-insurgency strategy - focused on getting troops out into the populace in order to reduce insurgents' freedom of maneuver, increase the sense of security within neighborhoods, and stiffen the backbone(s) of Iraqi Security Forces - makes a lot of sense. If, that is, at the tactical level, soldiers understand how to carry out his mandate. Reports like these leave one wondering.

Cognitive Dissonance:

a psychological term which describes the uncomfortable tension that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts at the same time. More precisely, it is the perception of incompatibility between two cognitions, where "cognition" is defined as any element of knowledge, including attitude, emotion, belief, or behavior.

Islamist Insurgency in Thailand grows...

...despite the best efforts of Thailand's new military (and Muslim-led) government to shift from a hard-edged to a softer approach.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Strategy vs. Tactics.

The US aids Ethiopia in ousting the ICU in order to chase after a handful of individuals...achieving a minor tactical success in the process.

Islamic insurgents go into hiding while Somalia descends into chaos.

As Ethiopia begins to withdraw, the weak Somali government propped up by the Ethiopians loses control and violence spirals upward in Mogadishu.

Likely end state?

  1. The Islamists return to power.
  2. People are happy with the stability they bring.
  3. They frown upon the US and its allies for creating chaos in the name of chasing a handful of individuals.
  4. Islamic militants have another "victory" over US-sponsored allies to fuel the jihadi movement.

So who has the greater strategic vision here?

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Hrmph.

Just when I was thinking Somalia had dropped off the radar screen with the media:

I hate to say I told you so but...

Sunday, January 28, 2007

How long will it last?

This article in the IHT leads me to wonder...how long will China's image of the "anti-hegemon" last within the world in general and the Third World in particular? How long until the tables begin to turn and nations tire of the caveats, requirements, and coalitions required to enjoy Chinese largesse?

Yet Chinese support does come with conditions, including a ban on formal ties with rival Taiwan and expectations that recipients vote with China at the United Nations. This month, South Africa joined Beijing in voting against a resolution to censure Myanmar for human rights abuses, arousing criticism that South Africa had forgotten the United Nation's role in abolishing apartheid.

In much of the world, anti-globalization is synonomous (currently) with anti-Americanism - since we are generally seen to be the strongest cultural force advancing within its context. But in economic terms, it is China that gains the most from globalization - and China that does so at the expense of developing countries since it's labor pool directly competes with that of many smaller countries.

In South Africa, where trade unions have complained that Chinese textile imports have been devastating domestic industry, President Thabo Mbeki pointedly told a student audience last month that Africa needed to guard against allowing relations with China to develop into a "colonial relationship."