Wednesday, March 23, 2005

The cracks begin to widen

A couple of different stories regarding the EU caught my eye today. From the Guardian, word that the leaders of "old" EU countries (essentially France and Germany) will fight bitterly to prevent any of their hard-won prosperity from slipping to newer members as they battle over the new constitution:

European leaders on all sides hope that Mr Barroso's conciliatory language will help to calm the debate in France where there is anger that the EU is moving towards a neo-liberal, free market future and away from the "French model" of strong social guarantees and public services.

But unease extends beyond France as the two halves of Europe - dubbed "old" and "new" by Donald Rumsfeld - divide over the measure. On one side stand the two main founding members of the EU, France and Germany, whose political forefathers would turn in their graves if the Treaty of Rome led to a Thatcherite laissez-faire Europe.

On the other side is Britain and the new EU member states in central and eastern Europe who want to reform what they regard as Europe's hidebound economy.

And from Businessweek Online, a look at French and German efforts to further loosen the Growth and Stability Pact they insisted upon at the EU's birth but have routinely ignored when it doesn't suit their own economic issues:

EU leaders approved a watering down of the rules that underpin the stability of the euro on Tuesday, a step Germany and France -- repeat offenders of the old rules -- quickly hailed as necessary to spur growth in lean times.

French President Jacques Chirac said the amended "Stability and Growth Pact" contained "more intelligent" monetary rules that will be "more accepted and more respected."

The original rules, written in 1997, had become unsuitable for they prevented governments from triggering growth at a time when Europe's economy is in the doldrums with an annual growth rate of barely 2 percent, Chirac said.

Other interesting news out of Europe: France appears ready to reject the EU constitution as workers fear French acceptance will expose France to too much competition from lower-income Eastern European members of the EU.

I'm left with the feeling that French and German intransigence will eventually hobble the EU to a point where members begin to dismiss it as a debate club rather than a serious representation of Europe.

Here's a little sound bite from French president Chirac to give you an idea on how France would like to see the EU promote economic growth:

"Ultraliberalism is the new Communism of our age," one source reported Chirac as saying.

Mike over at Blog One for the Gipper has another take on French reluctance. Will this make France the unexpected hero...?



Tuesday, March 22, 2005

I hate to say it...

...but I agree with most of what Mr. Troxler is saying:

There was an Englishman named Thomas More. He is most famous for refusing to approve Henry VIII's divorce, and paying for his principles with his head.

In the play about More's life titled A Man for All Seasons, More debates a character named Roper, who wants to ignore the law to fight evil:

Roper: So now you'd give the devil the benefit of law?

More: Yes. What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the devil?

Roper: I'd cut down every tree in England to do that.

More: Oh, and when the last law was down and the devil turned on you where would you hide, Roper, all the laws being flat? This country is planted thick with laws from coast to coast, man's laws not God's, and if you cut them down - and you're just the man to do it - do you really think that you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I'd give the devil the benefit of the law, for my own safety's sake.

Monday, March 21, 2005

Shirking my blogging 'responsibilities'

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. I've been a delinquent. Between running back to the States to rent a place (which, by the way, ended up being a place advertised on Craigslist, as per a previous discussion), getting miserably sick upon my return to Korea, and then getting on with the business of preparing to depart Korea within the next month, I've just been off my game. And this entry probably won't be changing that. I've been following the news on MSM sources, but avoiding the blogosphere of late (what? Just reading a news story? Not even hunting for left, right, or plain old crazy spin on a blog? Seems like I must still be SICK, doesn't it?) and all I really have to offer today is a quick round-up on stories that have caught my eye lately.

We'll concentrate on Iraq. Skipping all of the prognosticating and "I told you so's" from BOTH sides generated by the two year anniversary of the invasion, I'll concentrate on a few contradictory stories. First let me say this. I believe a corner has been turned. U.S. casualties have been on a steady decline since the elections and Iraqi forces are finally starting to show an ability to carry out a mission with minimal U.S. prodding or "advice." Along those lines, John Burns (far and away the Times' best reporter in Iraq) has this to say regarding progress within Baghdad (the epicenter of the Western press-covered insurgency since the end of the seige in Fallujah):

In the first 18 months of the fighting, the insurgents mostly outmaneuvered the Americans along Haifa Street, showing they could carry the war to the capital's core with something approaching impunity.

But American officers say there have been signs that the tide may be shifting. On Haifa Street, at least, insurgents are attacking in smaller numbers, and with less intensity; mortar attacks into the Green Zone have diminished sharply; major raids have uncovered large weapons caches; and some rebel leaders have been arrested or killed.

[...]

But the change American commanders see as more promising than any other here is the deployment of large numbers of Iraqi troops. American commanders are eager to shift the fighting in Iraq to the country's own troops, allowing American units to pull back from the cities and, eventually, to begin drawing down their 150,000 troops. Haifa Street has become an early test of that strategy.

Also from the Times, we have the contrarian view - although the reporter's story doesn't accurately reflect the ground truth. Edward Wong reports on one of the increasingly rare large-scale insurgent attacks (the sort that were taking place on a regular basis 3-5 months ago) against an American unit - and its resounding defeat. And then chooses to spin this as proof nothing has changed. The Iraqi insurgents have been forced to abandon manpower and resource-intensive attacks outside of their strongest bases of operations (confined largely to Al-Anbar province) and rely mainly on terror strikes that generate news and a low-level terror campaign against the Iraqi government and security agencies. When they do try to gather resources for larger operations, they are decisively defeated. The U.S. effort to push Iraqi units into the field (where they can better gather intelligence than American units) and an increased emphasis on American foot patrols (generally more dangerous in the short term but much more valuable in the long term) have begun to alleviate some of the problems generated by rapid armored patrols racing through the streets (such patrols angered locals, encouraged insurgents, and added nothing to the American intelligence gathering effort).

Another report from the LA Times paints a more neutral picture, although the reporter also does his best to misunderstand the nature of counter-insurgency with comments like this:

Even as American units struggle to contain the insurgency, thousands of U.S. trainers are being pulled away from combat in the daunting effort to transform Hussein's hidebound, corrupt and undisciplined army into a lean, efficient force.

Hey Dave...I got news for ya. Pulling American troops to train and advise Iraqi troops is an 'economy of force' operation. Those same troops, by themselves, would be far less effective. An infantry company that serves as the core for a brigade-sized Iraqi unit is going to be far more effective and cover a much larger area than an infantry company maneuvering independently.

So anyway...I think the military situation in Iraq is improving. Now it remains to be seen if the political situation will begin to develop....

Monday, March 14, 2005

Debating the 'Lessons Learned'

On April 30, 1975, "[t]wo years after a cease-fire agreement promised peace in Vietnam; ten years after America sent combat troops into its longest war; twenty years after an international conference divided Vietnam; thirty years after the Communists launched their struggle for Vietnam's independence" (Source), the failed American intervention came to an end as the North Vietnamese captured Saigon. So ended the world's first so-called "living room war." Vietnam has served as a defining experience for a wide number of politicians, professional soldiers, scholars, and activists. Each of these separate groups, based on their own experiences during the Vietnam era - and their own pre-conceived notions - has developed a unique set of "lessons learned" from the conflict – and many within each of these groups now seek to apply those lessons to American intervention in Iraq. Broadly defined, the three main lessons learned that are most generally applied today come from the journalistic perspective (the real story doesn't come from official sources), the military perspective (based around the Powell Doctrine), and the public perspective (here there are two contradicting lessons: once involved in a conflict, the public should support the war effort to its successful conclusion and, inversely, mass protests can affect public policy).

In attempting to apply these lessons (however contradictory and confusing they may be), the United States seeks to answer one question above all others: how does (or how can) an open society effectively wage war? Information technology, new reporting techniques (and perspectives), and ever-evolving public perceptions regarding what falls within the citizen's 'right to know' have all profoundly altered the notion of total war. Government has been largely stripped of its ability to filter and shape news from the war front. Instead, military and political leaders now struggle to develop new relationships with the press, with the public, and with its soldiers at the same time it attempts to militarily engage and defeat its enemies.

LESSONS FOR JOURNALISTS

While Korea was the first war fought during the television era, the medium hadn't developed a wide enough base within America to serve as a tool for delivering war news quickly to an American public. That public was still conditioned to expect limited, largely positive war coverage from its WWII experiences. Combined with the difficulty in providing anything but wired reports from the war front, journalism from Korea – although much freer from censorship than its WWII predecessor – was unable to create as deep an impact on American public opinion (or substantively deliver a message that contradicted the official U.S. government position on the war). In an era when anti-Communist paranoia ran exceptionally high, few editors were likely to sanction stories that questioned the larger meaning of the war or the generally held belief that America was unquestionably in the right when contrasted with its opponents. Instead, the central debate on Korea developed between political leaders attempting to discern how deeply the battle in Korea could be tied into the 'battle' against communism. This would change in Vietnam – although that change would develop slowly as reporters began to compare official messages more closely with their own experiences in an extended conflict.

The preponderance of early press coverage in Vietnam was largely positive – as it has typically been in all of America's wars:

For the first few years of the living room war most of the coverage was upbeat. It typically began with a battlefield roundup, written from wire reports based on the daily press briefing in Saigon--the "Five O'Clock Follies," as journalists called it--read by the anchor and illustrated with a battle map. These reports had a World War II feel to them--journalists no less than generals are prone to "fighting the last war"--with fronts and "big victories" and a strong sense of progress and energy (Source).

As the war dragged on – and as reporters traveling with military units began to see growing gaps between official proclamations and the truth as they saw it on the ground, the tone of coverage began to change. Because more reporters were producing more information – and this information was more readily available to yet other reporters, a consensus began to form that disputed official press releases. This gradual building of a base of knowledge separate from that provided by the military lead to such incidents as Walter Cronkite's report following the Tet Offensive in 1968:

Initially, Cronkite was something of a hawk on the Vietnam War, although his program did broadcast controversial segments such as Morley Safer's famous "Zippo lighter" report. However, returning from Vietnam after the Tet offensive Cronkite addressed his massive audience with a different perspective. "It seems now more certain than ever," he said, "that the bloody experience of Vietnam is a stalemate." He then urged the government to open negotiations with the North Vietnamese. Many observers, including presidential aide Bill Moyers speculated that this was a major factor contributing to President Lyndon B. Johnson's decision to offer to negotiate with the enemy and not to run for President in l968 (Source).

For members of the press, broadcasts such as Cronkite's represented a watershed event. Wartime information gathered by reporters, disseminated by the mass media, and seen by ever-increasing American audiences was directly contradicting official U.S. government positions – and doing so in a manner that seemed to affect policy. For journalists, the lesson seemed clear: the truth often comes from sources other than the government. The truth is required for the American people to participate in democracy. The truth may require a more neutral stance toward the United States than most American war reporters had ever considered in the past. In Iraq today, journalists struggle to balance official press releases with unprecedented firsthand access to the battlefield (embeds), reports from Arab journalists providing a view through the 'enemy's eyes,' and their own desire to affect policy without appearing to lean too hard toward one side or the other. Thus far, the result is a pool of information so disparate that journalists and media consumers can find well-researched stories with extensive anecdotal evidence to support either pro-war, anti-war, or any other stance one chooses to take. The journalistic lessons from Vietnam (as applied to Iraq) have created new stories, new viewpoints, and new techniques for gathering and delivering information but have failed thus far to decisively affect policy or provide a clear voice describing the situation on the ground.

LESSONS FOR MILITARY LEADERS

For senior military officers, the practical, war-fighting lessons taken away from Vietnam can typically be summarized by reviewing the so-called Powell Doctrine:

It has been argued that the Doctrine follows from principles laid out by Caspar Weinberger, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of Defense and as such Powell's former boss:

· Is a vital US interest at stake?

· Will we commit sufficient resources to win?

· Are the objectives clearly defined?

· Will we sustain the commitment?

· Is there reasonable expectation that the public and Congress will support the operation?

· Have we exhausted our other options? (Source)

Professional military men have looked for the most easily discerned lessons from Vietnam for both senior and junior-level officers and NCOs. Translated to Iraq, military leaders such as H.R. McMaster have questioned U.S. actions early in the Vietnam War that bear a strong similarity to U.S. actions toward Iraq since the end of the first Gulf War (and prior to the 2003 invasion):

There is a grave danger associated with calling the bombing of another country anything but war. During the period in which Vietnam became an American war, Lyndon Johnson and Robert McNamara created the illusion that attacks on North Vietnam were alternatives to war rather than war itself. Bombing, particularly from the perspective of the receiving end, is not "communication." Bombs result in death and destruction. After engaging in acts of war against another nation, there exists a degree of uncertainty in terms of the enemy's reactions. War inspires an unpredictable psychology and evokes strong emotions that defy systems analysis quantification (Source).

The general consensus among military senior leadership centers on the belief that clearly articulated strategic goals must serve as the base for planning and executing military operations. For these leaders, such a clearly articulated goal was never apparent in Vietnam.

At the junior level, the advent of a professional army (one of the most important contributions of post-Vietnam leaders), has created an environment in which increasing degrees of operational freedom can be given to company and platoon-level leadership – along with the information tools required to effectively utilize this newfound freedom. Without the professionalization of the force, such freedom would be useless – lost on conscripts and hastily-trained junior leaders without the institutional knowledge to carry out decentralized operations.

Another of the key strategic and military lessons learned from Vietnam centers on the creation of a legitimate host-nation counterinsurgency force – and a government capable of garnering popular support. Although small-scale U.S. efforts (such as those undertaken by Special Forces units and some Marines) in Vietnam created effective local counter-insurgency forces, the large-scale efforts were far less successful. In Iraq, efforts to build both an effective host-nation force and a legitimate government continue apace. In contrast to America's Vietnam experience, the Iraqi elections are an effort to create a government that has local appeal and popular support as its most defining feature. Tolerating a local government that may broadly disagree with the United States as it seeks to appeal to its constituency is a bold divergence from the past.

As a broader theme, the practical lessons applied from Vietnam for the military and political leaders of the United States revolve around placing greater authority into the hands of those who, in the past, have simply been told what to do. This applies both to American military members and the Iraqi people in general. As such, it is a bold gamble that relies on the abilities and attitudes of the common man and woman rather than political or military elites.

LESSONS FOR THE AMERICAN PUBLIC

The American public most clearly demonstrates the split perceptions created by the Vietnam War. For the anti-war movement, Vietnam was a demonstration of 'people power' – proof that a vocal minority could sway government policy and the broader views of the general population through activism, civil disobedience, and large-scale protests targeted at key events and institutions. For the Nixon-defined 'silent majority' who uncomfortably watched a social movement based on what they deemed unpatriotic ideals, the lesson is far different. Holding the WWII public reaction to war as its patriotic example, this large block of the citizenry expected (and expects) honest debate and a firm rationale for the use of force…but places loyalty to the country, its leaders, and its soldiers at the fore once a conflict has begun. This dichotomy of views is perhaps best explained thusly: for the anti-war movement, U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam was a patriotic victory. For the more socially conservative 'silent majority,' U.S. withdrawal was a defeat sparked by the actions of disloyal citizens. Although this divide has lain dormant beneath the American political scene for most of the intervening years (flaring up during the early '80s Central American conflicts and again briefly during the run-up to Desert Storm in '90 and '91), the 2003 war in Iraq – and the presidential election of 2004 have served to both widen this gap and bring it to a position of prominence not seen since the late '60s. Taken to its extreme form, many believe that social activism utilizing the new tools of the Information Revolution has created a so-called "second superpower" composed of world public opinion – and that this superpower will gradually gain the power to dictate terms to nation-states. Interestingly, much of the Bush administration's efforts at spreading democracy are built atop the notion that, if given the choice, people will fight and die for a chance to live in freedom. In other words, the policy is based upon the same faith in grass roots movements expressed by the anti-war movement that opposes him.

CONCLUSION:

David Fromkin best sums up the difficulty in applying clear lessons learned from Vietnam with this excerpt from Foreign Affairs Magazine:

The underlying condition for using historical episodes as a unifying metaphor enabling us to better understand new situations is that a consensus about the past must exist. Otherwise, illuminating though the past may be for each individual in arriving at a private understanding of events, it does not help in persuading others so as to arrive at a common understanding (Source).

As interesting as the utter lack of consensus from the Vietnam War is the increased flow of information available from Iraq. In a sense, the years required to form and harden opinions on Vietnam have been reduced to considerably less in Iraq. Onlookers build on preconceived notions left over from Vietnam and have access to as much information in one day as was likely generated within a month (or more) during the Vietnam conflict. And this information is presented from a bewildering array of angles – all based on anecdotal evidence that, if viewed in isolation, is generally factually correct. The new "lessons learned" from Iraq are as disparate and as passionately believed as the lessons from Vietnam – but little has been accomplished outside of allowing "each individual [to arrive] at a private understanding of events" (ibid).



Thursday, March 03, 2005

What was that you were saying about a conservative majority?

The NY Times published a story today highlighting some of the obstacles the Bush administration faces as public opinion begins to coalesce against Social Security reform and for Medicare reform. There is an increasing concern over job growth as well - a growing trend that likely does not bode well for free trade advocates. Some highlights from the poll:

On Social Security, 51 percent said permitting individuals to invest part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts, the centerpiece of Mr. Bush's plan, was a bad idea, even as a majority said they agreed with Mr. Bush that the program would become insolvent near the middle of the century if nothing was done. The number who thought private accounts were a bad idea jumped to 69 percent if respondents were told that the private accounts would result in a reduction in guaranteed benefits. And 45 percent said Mr. Bush's private account plan would actually weaken the economic underpinnings of the nation's retirement system.

[...]

In an apparent reflection of the success of the Iraq elections, 53 percent of those surveyed said that efforts to bring order to Iraq were going very or somewhat well, up from 41 percent a month ago. That is the highest rating on that score since the capture of Mr. Hussein.

Still, 42 percent now say that Mr. Bush would have been better off trying to counter the threat of North Korea before invading Iraq, compared with 45 percent who think Mr. Bush was correct to focus first on Iraq.

[...]

Four months after Mr. Bush won a solid re-election over Senator John Kerry, 63 percent of respondents say the president has different priorities on domestic issues than most Americans. Asked to choose among five domestic issues facing the country, respondents rated Social Security third, behind jobs and health care. And nearly 50 percent said Democrats were more likely to make the right decisions about Social Security, compared with 31 percent who said the same thing about Republicans.

[...]

If Americans are ambivalent about the need for Washington to grapple with Social Security, the poll found abundant concern with the budget deficit, with much of the blame attributed to Mr. Bush. Sixty percent of respondents - including 48 percent of self-described conservatives - said they disapproved of how Mr. Bush was managing the deficit. And 90 percent of respondents described the deficit as a very or somewhat serious problem.

I'm not going to sit here and beat a dead horse (much...) but this is an argument I've made on more than one occasion. The 'conservative majority' from the last election was an illusion created by a temporary set of shared interests between fiscal and social conservatives. Those shared interests are rapidly diverging. There is a substantial portion of the American voting population that is 'back on the market,' waiting for either of the two parties' leadership to break ranks with their vocal minorities and appeal to the masses. Who will do so first...?

Welcome to Bushland

Like him, love him, or hate him, you'll likely find something of interest in this article about Bush's recent trip to Europe from Der Spiegel.


The latest from Germany and the OECD

Germany released new unemployment numbers today - 12.6%. Admittedly, the number jumped from last month (12.1%) largely because they have reworked the figures for determining unemployment. Unfortunately, the reworked figures are more accurate than the old. Estimates for economic growth have turned for the worse as well:

The International Monetary Fund is to cut its 2005 growth forecast for the German economy from 1.8% to 0.8%, the Financial Times Deutschland reported.

The IMF will also reduce its growth estimate for the 12-member eurozone economy from 2.2% to 1.6%, the newspaper reported.

The German economy has been faltering, with unemployment levels rising to a seventy-year high of 5.2 million.

Its sluggish performance continues to hamper the entire eurozone.

[...]

Europe's economic difficulties have been highlighted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which argued in a report published on Tuesday that the continent could only achieve US living standards by freeing up its labour markets.

Here's a summary of that OECD report and here's a much more detailed presentation. The opening statement reads as follows:

Looking at trend performances over the past decade or so, many countries have managed to pursue or resume convergence of living standards on that of the leading country (United States) despite the particularly strong performance observed in the latter over the period (Figure 1.1).1 Since 1993, GDP per capita rose relative to that in the United States in over half of member countries: English-speaking and Nordic countries, as well as Central European countries, Greece, Korea and Spain. The countries that grew fastest relative to the United States are mainly those where GDP per capita remains comparatively low (Hungary, Korea, Poland and Slovakia). A notable exception is Ireland, which after more than 15 years of the fastest growth in GDP per capita in the OECD area is close to par with living standards in the United States.2

In contrast, the gap in GDP per capita has either remained unchanged or widened in several continental European countries over the same period (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland) as well as in Japan. For the European Union and Japan, the level of GDP per capita remains between 25 and 30% below that in the United States. While the size of the gap varies quite significantly across EU countries, differences are relatively small among the largest member states (with gaps also between 25 and 30%). The most disappointing performance over the past decade in the OECD area has been registered in Mexico and Turkey, which combined the weakest (after Switzerland) growth rate and the lowest levels of GDP per capita.

OECD recommendations for improving U.S. GDP growth:

    • Limit increases in labour costs by reforming Medicare to restrain health care costs.
    • Encourage private saving by shifting the burden of taxation towards consumption.
    • Improve primary and secondary education achievements to raise efficiency of the workforce.
    • Reduce producer support to agriculture, especially the most trade-distorting type.
    • Stand firm on promoting transparency and accountability in corporate governance.

Hey...those ideas don't sound half-bad. I'm curious to see what Bush's tax reform advisory panel releases as a final product come July.



Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Sanctions on the sly

As of March 1st, a Japanese law preventing uninsured vessels from entering its ports has gone into effect. In more clear terms, that means:

A ship insurance law that came into force in Japan on Tuesday will exclude most North Korean vessels from its ports and slash trade, though Tokyo is wary of imposing full-fledged economic sanctions on Pyongyang despite public anger over Japanese citizens abducted decades ago.

A majority of Japanese voters support sanctions but Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been wary of taking such tough action, fearful it could scuttle international efforts to bring North Korea back to six-nation talks on its nuclear program.

[...]

Most North Korean ships traveling between the North and Japan are over 100 tonnes but only 2.5 percent of them were insured as of 2003, a Japanese Transport Ministry official said.

Sanctions on the sly...good move for a government anxious to assuage angry voters without officially affecting the status of multilateral talks with North Korea, right? Not so fast:

Others also said the insurance law would have only a limited impact on the North's economy since it would not affect drug smuggling, believed to dwarf its legitimate trade with Japan.

Drugs are believed to be brought in by smaller ships that are exempt from the insurance requirement, and could also be carried by ships of different flags.

Takashi Kadokura, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said nearly 700 billion yen worth of amphetamines are believed to be brought into Japan annually from North Korea, compared with 17.6 billion yen in official imports from the North in 2003.

Which brings us to our next interesting subject: how does North Korea gather foreign currency? Let's take a look. First, we have drugs (here and here); next we have counterfeit American dollars (here and here); last...but certainly not least, an active program to export missile technology (here and here). It's no wonder North Korea has been likened to a "gangster confederacy."




So when does the bubble burst?

Michael Kinsley published an Op-Ed piece in the WaPost over the weekend ref: the ongoing housing boom - and possible signs (and countersigns...) of a coming downturn:

It is obvious to me that today's real estate prices are a speculative bubble that is bound to burst. Of course, this has been obvious to me for about three decades and wrong almost all of that time. Nevertheless. One piece of evidence is the Dinner Party Index. The boom is over when more people are bored by real estate anecdotes ("My next-door neighbor got three times her asking price before she even put it on the market, from a professional mind reader who divined that she was thinking about selling. . . .") than have new ones.

[...]

You've got a bubble when today's prices assume large future increases. If you think prices will be 20 percent higher in a year, you'll be willing to pay 19 percent more today. But if others share that belief, today's price will already be 19 percent higher. Betting on appreciation makes sense only if you are even more optimistic than other buyers. That is hard to be right now.

[...]

Like a roller coaster, a financial bubble has a moment of eerie stillness at the top. Buyers have adjusted, sellers haven't. So sales dry up. When the New York Times spins a surplus of unsold houses as a sign that "the ongoing problem of a lack of houses for sale" has been solved, it means that you had better not count on the Times to tell you when it's time to bail.

[...]

People do foolish things under the impression that they are getting richer because their houses are worth more. They save less, they spend more. Egged on by television commercials, they "consolidate their debts" (i.e., buy a new boat) with a second mortgage. And who really gains from soaring house prices? First-time buyers don't. Nor does anyone who plans ever to trade up. The only beneficiaries are those who are selling their last house, after a lifetime of appreciation. The bigger the house, the bigger the windfall. This is yet another thank-you from America to the so-called Greatest Generation. I'm not sure it's necessary.

Maybe this story holds more relevance to me because we are going to be moving back to the States in the near future - likely to a very expensive real estate market (almost certainly D.C.). For those of you who somehow don't know it, real estate prices in D.C. (and anywhere within probably a 60-mile radius) are...hm...ridiculous actually seems too tame. What does that mean? It means that I'm leery to buy...especially if the market is on the verge of a (much-needed) correction.

It also means that rentals are insanely over-priced. So what's better then? Pouring money down the rental drain or investing in a piece of property that is likely to (rapidly) depreciate over the next 2-5 years? Hm...that's sorta like picking between taking a right cross to the nose or a swift kick to the jimmies, isn't it?



Intelligence reform from the ground up?

I have previously blogged about what I would call the 'revolution within the revolution' currently taking place in the military. Essentially, it is an effort to increase the sharing of knowledge - and the 'knowledge database' of the junior officers and NCOs who are most in need of information. Now from Wired, another call for bottom-up (rather than top-down) reform of the intelligence community:

Instead of embarking on an expensive and decades-long process of reform - the type loved by bureaucrats on Capitol Hill - the services can fix this themselves. There's no reason our nation's spy organizations can't leap­frog what the Army is already doing with Web technology and, at the same time, build upon what the public is doing with the blogosphere.

[...]

The first step toward reform: Encourage blogging on Intelink. When I Google "Afghanistan blog" on the public Internet, I find 1.1 million entries and tons of useful information. But on Intelink there are no blogs. Imagine if the experts in every intelligence field were turned loose - all that's needed is some cheap software. It's not far-fetched to picture a top-secret CIA blog about al Qaeda, with postings from Navy Intelligence and the FBI, among others. Leave the bureaucratic infighting to the agency heads. Give good analysts good tools, and they'll deliver outstanding results.

[...]

All this is possible with resources that currently exist. It won't require a complete overhaul of intelligence services, or the creation of a cabinet-level "intelligence czar." (Has the drug czar won the war on drugs?) Intelink blogging would immediately improve the information being used in the war on terror. AKO has managed to connect nearly 2 million members on an annual budget of about $30 million - that's chump change compared with the cost of a day's operations in Iraq. You do the math.

I think perhaps the author gets a little bit carried away in describing the possibilities for collaboration between the CIA and the blogosphere in general - I'm not sure if we'll ever see "an official CIA Iraq blog" open to the general public - and I'm not sure if we should. Many of the problems in the intel community already stem from too much bad information circulating with the good. And, much as I like to think of the blogosphere as a new means of processing and producing knowledge, there is still a lot of junk floating around - and often building momentum as "truth" as it bounces around the echo chambers of blogrings, blog alliances, and the dedicated readers of the top 10-20 (or) so U.S. blogs (Instapundit, Dailykos, Power Line, etc.). The idea of analysts sharing ideas, theories, and a general pool of knowledge within the classified Intelink system is a good one. The idea of having analysts delve into the "open" blogosphere to look for possible leads and new information seems appealing as well -but I don't like the idea of an official CIA/DIA/whomever blog.