I know, I know...
My LAST "crazy-ass prediction" was, well...crazy. And almost certainly wrong. But here I go again. IF (still a big "if") McCain wins Florida, the Republican nominee, after a crazy opening to the campaign season, will be chosen (or obvious - even prior to amassing enough delegates) before the Dem nominee. It might even be safe to assume that the presumptive Republican nominee (again, assuming it's McCain) will change Dem sentiments - probably more toward Obama than Hillary.
3 comments:
I would certainly agree, Tim, that McCain would have a much, much better chance of beating Hillary than he would of beating Obama. Though I think McCain likely has the best chance of any Republican.
I have long been a fan of John McCain. I was very disappointed when he didn't win the nomination in 2000 and I've been waiting eight years for him to get another chance. I still like McCain and have been monetarily supporting him. However,my money, and very, very likely my vote, has also been going to Senator Obama.
I wonder what your analysis is of the Independent, and even conservative leaning Independents like myself, support Barack has garnered. Obama was here in Idaho yesterday and the support, in, arguably, the reddest of red states, was phenomenal. Attendance, in a 12,000 seat arena, is being estimated at 15,000. When people began arriving the area beside and behind the stage had been curtained off, limiting the seating to about seven thousand, plus the floor. The curtains were quickly pulled down and the entire arena was filled and people stood outside listening to the Senator over speakers. I have never seen anything approaching this kind of support for a Democrat in my home state.
I know you haven't heard from me in a long time but I have been following your blog. I would say your Huckabee prediction wasn't all that crazy. In fact, it was almost true and still isn't outside the realm of possibility.
Jesse,
Interesting insight(s) on the race from a traditionally Red State perspective. I think we're starting to get an idea how the "silent majority" feels about the ideas and agendas being pushed by the punditocracy. Those on the Far Right are screaming and pulling their hair out at the thought of McCain gaining the nomination...and then showing a willingness to compromise to, you know, actually get something done - without considering the political implications to the Party. The same can be said for those on the Far Left who have developed a bit of uneasiness with Obama for the same reason.
McCain's critical weaknesses against Obama are the fact that he IS a Republican in a year when that won't do you much good on the national political scene and the amount of time he's spent in Washington. Because people really ARE clamoring for change - from both sides of the aisles - a candidate like Obama, despite his voting record seems like more of a fresh start.
All that being said, I have more faith in McCain than Obama...probably both because I lean more toward conservative and because I think experience - to include real LEADERSHIP experience (not Hillary's pretend experience) - is an important attribute.
I realized today that being an Independent in Idaho frees one up to vote for whoever the hell they want. The fact is that the Republican nominee will win regardless of what I, any other Independent, or any Democrat do with our votes. It is sad and frustrating on the one hand, but also freeing on the other because you know there is no chance of screwing anything up regardless of how crazy you may vote in a given presidential election. Really the only influence we can have is in the Democratic caucus.
Just wanted to throw that out there for folks to chew on.
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