Two steps forward...how many back?
New Leaders Of Sunnis Make Gains In Influence
While I had often previously pondered how long it would take until some portion of the Sunni population in Iraq realized their best move would be to work with the US, it remains difficult to see where this will all lead. Much of it depends on how willing the national government is to make concessions in order to solidify peace - not the sort of large scale concessions discussed during the last round of "benchmarks" but small steps like accepting Sunni "concerned local citizens" as a legitimate force in creating conditions for longer-term peace. That, of course, won't happen if either the Sunni militia movements push too hard against Shiite forces and civilians (because they feel that they have the backing of the US) or if Sadr and his leaders decide to throw out their cease fire and jump back into the fight with both fists.
3 comments:
historical forces are pretty inexorable. they can be delayed, but hardly ever shifted. the question, then, might be: is the long-term "direction of change" pointing, over much time, to ethnic conflict as the endemic force of the region?
Dan,
Tough question - and probably can't be answered on a regional basis. The real problem is that Iraq is such an odd conglomeration that one could argue that it will always be prone to instability. The same can be said for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Lebanon. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is another example. Still, that doesn't encompass the whole region. Iran is generally stable and homogeneous enough to avoid ethnic conflict - as are most of the Gulf States.
I guess you could make the case that our decisions in Iraq (and I mean that collectively - US, Iraqi, Iranian, etc.) will determine whether it becomes an endemic force in the region. If we were to choose the temporary pain of breaking Iraq down into more homogeneous regions (you know, ethnic cleansing...), we would likely create the conditions for longer term stability.
There has been some talk recently about more diversity within Iran than meets the eye: Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, etc. I saw an estimate (which I didnt believe) that maybe only 50-60% of the population was Persian.
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