Two widely disparate views on Iran's nuclear intentions

From the Arms Control Wonk, a well-researched and well-written article discussing the general rule that we really 'don't know what we don't know' as I believe Mr. Rumsfeld is sometimes fond of saying. As a counterpoint to the Wonk, I found this article on IRVAJ English (although it appears to be a reprint from an article originally posted in the NY Post by Amir Taheri).

Both articles operate from a similar assumption: Iran will likely not be able to weaponize until 2009. The point of departure seems to be estimates of intent. The contrast between the two articles plays to the knowledge base of each writer. From the Wonk, we have a detailed description of American policy-makers, their knowledge, and their estimates (and the big holes that run through those). From Mr. Taheri, a series of quotes and comments from senior Iranian officials that would seem to strongly support the general belief that Iran's nuclear intentions include weaponization. Both make for good reads...and both make for great bases of further research.

How much do U.S. policy-makers really know about Iran's program? What is the Administration's desired end state? How does that compare with the EU-3?

How do Iranian statements intended for the world audience differ from those meant for domestic consumption? Which are more accurate? How much of the context surrounding those quotes provided by Mr. Taheri are we seeing? Maybe when I have some more time, I'll do a bit more digging.

Tags:

Iran
Amin Taheri
Nuclear negotiations