Bending the polls to our beliefs

Here's a bit more from Juan Cole regarding the hornet's nest he kicked over with his attempts to justify the Martini Republic's conspiracy theories.

My allegation that the IraqTheModel website is far outside the norm of Iraqi public opinion as measured by polling has caused a stir in the weblogging world among, apparently, dittoheads who can't read polls.

Here are the results of an April, 2004, Gallup poll, which was scientifically weighted and involved over 3000 face-to-face interviews all over the country.

And as Juan tells us later, polls can ONLY get worse for the US. Never better. We're not allowed to accept the situation could ever change for the better. And if it does – or someone dares indicate that it might…well, clearly we have another right wing conspiracy on our hands.

The numbers from the April poll:

On Balance, do you think of the Americans mostly as Occupiers or liberators?

Occupiers: 71 %
Liberators 19%

(43% reported that in April 2003, they had thought of the Americans as liberators).

How have the US Forces Conducted themselves?

58% said "fairly badly" or "very badly."

Asked if the US was serious about establishing democracy in Iraq:

50% said "no."
12% said "don't know."

Asked if attacks on US troops could be justified,

52% said "sometimes," "somewhat," or "completely."

The United States had an unfavorability rating of 54%

(and there wasn't a significant difference between the Shiites and the Sunni Arabs).

Only 31% favored a separation of mosque and state! (But 66% of Kurds did).

Only 30% of the Arab population favored a multiparty parliamentary democracy!

What Juan, of course, fails to mention is that while the idea of multiparty parliamentary democracy scored only a 30% favorability rating among the Arab population, the idea of such a system scored 40% approval overall in the poll – the highest of any system of government mentioned. Victory with less than a majority? Hey, isn't that how Clinton won HIS elections?

I drew attention to Martini Republic's questions about the independence of IraqTheModel without actually expressing any opinion myself one way or another, except to say that they are out of the Iraqi mainstream. The dittoheads who read them and can look at the above polling figures and come to a different conclusion are just innumerate (if only they were also so illiterate as to be unable to figure out my email address).

Again, anyone who dares question 6-7 month old poll numbers is clearly a fool. After all, look at what else the poll numbers tell us from April:

Long-Term Optimism Remains

Although Iraqis are divided on whether their country is currently better (42%) or worse (39%) off than before last spring's invasion,, there is striking optimism regarding the country's long-term future following the return of sovereignty on June 30.

Nearly two-thirds of all Iraqis (63%) say they believe their country will be either somewhat (34%) or much (29%) better off five years from now than it is at present, while just one Iraqi in 10 foresees the country being worse off five years hence (4% somewhat worse off, 6% much worse off). Also worth noting is the fact that these positive expectations were expressed by Shiites and Sunnis alike. More than half (55%) of those living in strongly Shiite areas say they expected Iraq to be better off five years from now (21% much, 34% somewhat), as did half (50%) of all those living in strongly Sunni areas (26% much, 24% somewhat). And a mere 12% of those in either grouping say they expected Iraq to be worse off five years from now (those in strongly Shiite areas: 5% somewhat worse, 7% much worse; those in strongly Sunni areas: 7% somewhat worse, 5% much worse).

More thoughts from Juan:

One of them complained that this poll was done last April. Does anybody really think US favorability numbers are up since then?

Good question, Juan. Are you implying that numbers in polls CAN'T change except to reflect more poorly on the US? Just as we shouldn't read IraqTheModel because it isn't negative enough for your beliefs, we shouldn't trust any polls that might show opinions of the US improving? Considering the string of April events that led to the poor poll numbers indicated by Juan, is it really so hard to believe that the now relatively quiet Shia and Kurdish regions of the country might have a higher opinion of the US? Especially considering US refusal to postpone the election? Since al-Sistani moved to calm Shiite fervor (and consequently forced the US hand in sticking to its election date), Shiite enthusiasm for elections has increased. Or is that impossible because it might be good news and things can only, in Juan's estimation, get worse?

What if the issue for the US is much less the popularity of the occupying force and much more the popularity of the elections? In the end, isn't that what really matters? And isn't that what many of the bloggers supporting IraqTheModel have been saying?

I've taken a quick look at Riverbend's blog. What I see are Sunni sour grapes – a sort of 'whoa is me. Since our beloved secular dictator left us, life has only gotten worse for those of us who WEREN'T ruthlessly suppressed by his regime.'

That's right. She laments the loss of their wonderful "secular dictatorship" and fears that democracy might actually bring change to the system. Wouldn't that be a terrible thing? Rule by the icky majority. According to my reading of the poll numbers above, her belief that Iraq will only get worse puts her in the (12%) minority – while placing IraqTheModel firmly in the (63%) majority.

What's that they say about lies, damn lies, and statistics? Juan chooses to base his pessimism solely on Iraqi views of the US…and on a belief in right wing conspiracies that he really never quite puts his finger on. Others choose to base their optimism on the fact that Iraqis want things to get better, believe things will get better, and will vote to demonstrate that belief come January. Let's hope the optimists have it right.