Wednesday, December 22, 2004

The GCC, terrorism, and Iraq

I caught this article in the Arab Times today. From my review of the article, it appears there was a greater sense of distress regarding the Iraqi insurgency than I would have expected. Some religious leaders in th region have called for active support of the insurgency but the GCC leaders seem less inclined to speak so aggressively. Here's the gist of their statement:

The Supreme Council of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) confirmed on Tuesday its support of the efforts to cut the financing sources of the terrorist operations and to find a solution for this issue, stressing the importance of differentiating between terrorism and the lawful right of resisting any form of occupation according to the UN resolutions. In its final communique the GCC renewed condemnation for the terrorists attacks the world is facing today and for all modes of terrorist attacks, and affirmed at the same time the GCC's firm stance on terrorism phenomena and support for fighting it.

I've highlighted what I consider the most interesting phrase within their statement. My guess is that this is a compromise designed to show an understanding of terrorism (defined as 'guys who might kick us out of power') vs. resistance to occupation (defined as either 'our Sunni brothers fighting to protect us from another Shiite neighbor' or 'the ever-oppressed Palestinians').

The Gulf Cooperation Council states renewed on Tuesday rejection of anything that leads to the partitioning of Iraq, stressing importance of preserving Iraq's unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity. A communique issued by end of the summit, expressed hope that the US administration would effectively work with the United Nations and the international community to enable the Iraqi people of contributing to the political process in Iraq, including general elections. The six GCC leaders said elections in Iraq would enable its people to determine their political and economic future, to maintain security and stability and help bring back Iraq to the world community fold according to UN resolution 1546.

The Gulf States are terrified that Iraq will either split apart (leaving a Shiite state in the south likely supported by Shiite-dominated Iran) or hold elections that confirm Shiite dominance throughout Iraq, setting the dangerous precedent of empowering Shia through elections - just what most Gulf States seek to avoid at all costs.

The communique commended the Saudi security forces' capability on handling the terrorist operations and their ability to end them with the least possible loss. The GCC states re-emphasized their support for Saudi Arabia and constant efforts to maintain stability and security and eradication of those who take terrorism as a way of life, which is rejected by all religions, human principles and morals. The statement confirmed that Islam is a religion of justice, mercy and tolerance, one that condemns any act against innocent people, and incriminates the torturing or killing of innocent souls.

In other words, 'we will accept any actions Saudi Arabia takes in the name of preventing revolution within its borders.' Until the possibility of such a revolution producing freedom rather than a more oppressive, Taliban-style regime, I'll second that motion.

Bahrain's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa announced on Tuesday that his country would found a regional center, for the Middle East and North Africa, specializing in combating money laundering and terror finance crimes.

Do you suppose this includes the massive amounts of money suspected to be pouring into Iraq from Saudi Arabia? Or does that not count since it's "the lawful right of resisting any form of occupation according to the UN resolutions?"


The GCC states also condemned the "blasts and terrorist acts targeting civil and religious institutions and the abduction of innocent people in Iraq, and extended condolences for families of the victims of violent acts. The GCC leaders renewed condemnation of deliberate genocide against Iraqi and Kuwait prisoners of war that the deposed Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein committed and deplored mass graves uncovered after the war to liberate Iraq. The GCC leaders called on the United Nations in cooperation with the Interim Iraqi government to make the efforts required to bring an end to the return of Kuwaiti property and national archives looted by soldiers of the deposed Iraqi regime during their seven-month occupation of Kuwait starting Aug 2, 1990.

I was surprised to see the term "liberation of Iraq." I wonder if that was the term used in the GCC document or if that's the spin of the reporter. Interesting to see the GCC showing a willingness to speak out against Saddam now....


They are also concerned that an Islamist insurgency in Iraq could spill over into the oil-rich Gulf, already battling a wave of militant violence by sympathisers of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Iraqi insurgents trying to wreck the election process have been particularly active in Sunni areas north and west of Baghdad and the US-backed Iraqi government fears they will seek to intimidate would-be voters on election day.

Note the GCC use of "Islamist insurgency." I suspect the leaders of most of these nations (regardless of what their people or religious leaders think) have grown increasingly concerned with the extremist nature of many of the insurgents fighting within the Sunni Triangle. Returning Afghan war vets sparked much of the last wave of fundamental violence across the Middle East - the same could come from the networks created and experience won in fighting the U.S. in Iraq.

That's what we call "blowback...."

The Captain's Quarters highlights another interesting tidbit from the conference:

The Saudis sent a lower-level minister to the GCC for the first time to register their dissatisfaction with the direction of the council, but the insult is unlikely to change minds in the Gulf. The smaller states have seen the US conduct its forward engagement strategy and, always attuned to power politics, have decided that they'd rather play directly with the big dog themselves. The competition for influence and trade with the US will create more leverage for us to insist on friendlier approaches in the madrassas and the minarets towards Americans while allowing the smaller and more moderate Gulf states to influence Arab opinion more organically.

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