Grand Strategy again

Michael Young takes a look at the current crisis in the Middle East from an insider's perspective. He sees the same sort of opportunity to turn Hezbollah's overreach against them that may yet take place with North Korea. Unfortunately, in both cases the method to exploit these overreaching actions is not military - or not entirely military. While the US has come to that realization in its dealings with North Korea, Israeli leadership still thinks it can achieve its goals through unilateral military action. I would call it a near-impossibility that merely increases the likelihood of a wider-ranging war with few real victors.

Clearly, Hezbollah is hoping (and prepared) for a heavy Israeli military response. As Mr. Young suggests,

It would be far smarter for Israel, and America, to profit from Hezbollah’s having perhaps overplayed its hand. The popular mood here is one of extreme anger that the group has provoked a conflict Lebanon cannot win. The summer tourism season, a rare source of revenue for a country on the financial ropes, has been ruined. Even Hezbollah’s core supporters, the Shiite Muslims in the south, cannot be happy at seeing their towns and villages turned again into a killing field.

What to do? While the United Nations has been ineffective in its efforts toward Middle East peace, it may be the right body to intervene here, if only because it has the cudgel of Security Council Resolution 1559, which was approved in 2004 and, among other things, calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament.

The five permanent Security Council members, perhaps at this weekend’s Group of 8 meeting, should consider a larger initiative based on the resolution that would include: a proposal for the gradual collection of Hezbollah’s weapons; written guarantees by Israel that it will respect Lebanese sovereignty and pull its forces out of the contested Lebanese land in the Shebaa Farms; and the release of prisoners on both sides. Such a deal could find support among Lebanon’s anti-Syrian politicians, would substantially narrow Hezbollah’s ability to justify retaining its arms, and also send a signal to Syria and particularly Iran that the region is not theirs for the taking.

One important thing: No Lebanese government could legitimately help to advance such a plan if Israel were to try to, as its army chief of staff put it this week, “turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years.” Israel must cease its attacks and let diplomacy take over.

Indeed. Too aggressive a military response by Israel weakens Lebanese democracy (which benefits Syria and Hezbollah more than anyone else), puts Israel back into the role (villain) it has typically been cast in by Arabs and (too many) Europeans, and increasingly detracts from efforts to separate Iran from its nuclear ambitions.