Election results from Iraq

Here are the latest Iraqi election results, as reported by Steven Vincent from In the Red Zone (who, in turn, got them from Abbas Khadim) -

Winners (based on 30,750 votes/seat):

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA): 4,075,295 (132 seats)
The Kurdistan Alliance: 2,175,551 (71 seats)
The Iraqi List (PM Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943 (38 seats)
Iraqis or Iraqiyyoun (President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680 (5 seats)
The Turkomen Iraqi Front: 93,480 (3 seats)
National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938 --Surprise! (2 seats)
The Communist Party: 69,920 -- they expected to win big! (2 seats)
The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592 (2 seats)
The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq (Shi'i): 43,205 (1 seat)
The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795 (1 seat)
National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255 (1 seat)
The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity (Sunni/nationalist): 30,796 (1 seat)

The number is not 275 seats yet. The balance of the seats will be distributed among the parties on the basis of their gains in total votes (whatever that means!)

Losers (no seats):

Iraqi Islamic Party (main Sunni group headed by Mohsen Abdel-Hamid): 21,342 -- they would have done much better had the Sunni Arabs voted in large numbers.
The Monarchy Movement (Jordan's best hope) 13,470
Assembly of Independent Democrats (headed by Sunni elder statesman Adnan Pachachi): 12,728
National Democratic Party (headed by Naseer Kamel al-Chaderchi, Sunni lawyer and member of the former Iraqi Governing Council): 1,603

Total votes: 8,550,571

Invalid votes: 94,305

And, of course, the spin has already started. When initial results were released and the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance had a majority of the votes (over 50%) cast, this was a nightmare because it meant they could form a majority faction within the National Assembly and dictate constitutional terms. With less than 50% of the vote, the nightmare of today is Shiites will ally with the Kurds - who are mysteriously transformed from America's 'closest allies in Iraq' (under the old think-speak) into Iranian pawns:

And the winning Kurdish alliance, whose co-leader Jalal Talabani is the top nominee for president, has roots in a province abutting Iran, which long served as its economic and political lifeline.

My thoughts? The fact that the primary Kurdish and Shiite slates have emerged as the two strongest (but without enough of a majority to dictate terms) means whatever government emerges (and whatever constitution is hammered out over the next nine months) will require compromises between the two groups with the greatests disparity of views (Sunni - often secular - Kurds vs. strongly Islamic Shiites). That's a good thing...it means they have a chance to solve their problems over a council table rather than over the sights of their rifles. The next key step? Attracting enough moderate Sunnis to begin sapping support for the insurgency. Easier said than done, eh...? Bottom line: the elections are a noteworthy event...but neither as positive as the most ardent conservative pundits would like to brashfully trumpet nor as negative as the most ardent liberal pundits would like to angrily mutter.

As for those reports of surging violence: John Cole says, 'not so fast:'

While it is far too early to tell, it apepars that there has been a significant drop in coalition fatalities since the elections held at the end of last month. It has only been two weeks, so it is too early to jump to any firm conclusions, and violence could accelerate this weekend, but the numbers are striking (A graphic from the Iraq Coalition Casualties homepage can be viewed here).

I haven't seen any numbers regarding the death toll among Iraqis since elections - and the general inability to differentiate between civilian, military, police, and insurgent deaths makes for difficult estimating.

Iraq Election Politics