Let's call this an addendum

I spent some time discussing an article from the CS Monitor that documented India and China's rising coal consumption here:

With the Kyoto classification of India and China as developing nations, the sacrifices made by developed nations to reduce emissions are overwhelmed by coal-fired industrial growth in these two rapidly-growing, mammoth states. Coal is cheap and China has lots of it. If they can find a way to achieve energy independence (regardless of pollution costs), they're going to take advantage of it.

Today, I happened upon this article in the Monitor, addressing China's efforts to shore up its oil supplies:

China's efforts to tie up oil and gas resources - in places such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan - have not been cheap. But it has an unfair advantage, says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Amherst, Mass. Its national oil firms have access to cheap capital from government institutions - and few limits on entering areas seen as sensitive for publicly held Western firms. (Think violence-prone Sudan.)

This article from NCM highlights some of the efforts recently made by China to secure greater access to oil and natural gas in Iran:

Iran is estimated to have 26.6 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, which explains why one the biggest Chinese energy companies, Sinopec, was invited to prepare the planning of a project to develop the gigantic Yadavaran field. The project includes exploration, petrochemical products production and pipeline construction.

In return, Sinopec will import 250 billion tons of gas in the next 25 years worth $70-100 billion. This is the largest economic deal concluded between the two countries since 1996. China is also looking forward to exporting various products to the large Iranian market.

The Chinese aren't fooling around. Like most countries of the world, they act to further their own best interests.

• Consider the fact that much of Pakistan's nuclear capability was developed with Chinese assistance - as a means of countering what it perceived as a threat from India in the '60s, '70s, and '80s.

• Consider recent U.S. sanctions imposed on Chinese companies (closely related to their military) for dealing with Iran.

• Consider Chinese efforts to forge "strategic agreements between the Russian and Chinese leadership on the expansion of their partnership in the energy sector."

What can we conclude from all of this? If China (and India) continue to grow apace and their energy needs continue to increase, we are likely to reach a point where there is simply not enough oil to go around:

The challenge is huge. For China and India to reach just one-quarter of the level of US oil consumption, world output would have to rise by 44 percent. To get to half the US level, world production would need to nearly double.

This obviously increases the odds of conflict between major powers - as long as oil remains the most important source of energy. More than creating tension from a competition for limited resources, this also puts China in a position where it is best served by hampering U.S. efforts in the Middle East.

Does it serve China's interest to have Iran consider it a close ally? Does it serve China's interest if Iran is nuclear-armed (thanks to China) and thus much less likely to face warfare that would limit its oil production?

Like the article's author, I also don't automatically assume that competing energy needs will necessarily lead to outright conflict with China. But it IS important for Americans to understand:

1. Why our efforts in the Middle East often meet so much resistance from other nations with their own interests on the line.
2. Why other nations tend to apply a cynical ear to high-minded speeches about freedom and liberty within the region.
3. That oil supplies are limited and it is as prudent to begin addressing the problem of limited future supplies now as it is prudent to address future budget shortfalls in Medicare or Social Security.
   
4. That the prices of renewable energy sources are likely to continue dropping while the prices of non-renewable sources are likely to continue rising - creating a scenario in which some of the more "loony" renewable energy ideas suddenly become much more practical.
5. That marginal decisions by average citizens can lead to major changes in our nation's energy usage.
   

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